Focus on Gulf investments, oil, AI and nuclear cooperation as president seeks quick wins abroad
US President Donald Trump will this week begin his first foreign trip of his second term with a high-stakes tour through Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, as he looks to secure major trade, investment, and technology deals with three of the world’s wealthiest nations.
The visit reprises the start of Trump’s first presidency in 2017, when he was warmly received in Riyadh. This time, however, it comes under the shadow of the Gaza war and amid deepening global economic tensions. Trump will not visit Israel during this trip, reflecting strained ties over the conflict in Gaza and diverging priorities with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government.
Trillions in deals on the table
The trip is expected to centre on what Trump has always prized most in foreign policy: deals.
Saudi Arabia has pledged to invest US$600bn in the United States over the next four years, with Trump touting a broader goal of US$1tn. The UAE, meanwhile, has promised US$1.4tn over a decade, with investments targeting AI, aluminium manufacturing, energy and the semiconductor sector. Qatar, already a major investor in US real estate and tech, is expected to build on its existing US$45bn commitments.
“These countries know what Trump wants,” said Steven A. Cook, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. “He’s coming for investments, not lectures. And they’re ready to deliver.”
A flurry of announcements is expected, including at a US–Saudi investment forum in Riyadh on May 13, where guests will include BlackRock CEO Larry Fink, Palantir CEO Alex Karp, and senior executives from Citigroup, IBM, Qualcomm and Alphabet.
AI and semiconductor exports will be key discussion points, particularly given the Trump administration’s recent move to reverse a Biden-era rule restricting advanced AI chip exports even to friendly nations. The new policy aims to “unleash American innovation,” according to the Commerce Department, potentially opening the door to Gulf access to critical US tech.
Nuclear ambitions and Iran talks
In addition to AI and tech, Saudi Arabia is expected to press for US support to develop its civilian nuclear program. During Trump’s first term, such support was conditioned on Riyadh normalising relations with Israel. That linkage appears to have now been dropped, opening the possibility of a US-Saudi nuclear cooperation deal during this trip.
Meanwhile, Iran remains a persistent source of tension. Trump’s administration has been engaged in quiet talks over the Iranian nuclear programme, and Gulf states have expressed support for renewed negotiations. Yet any perceived US alignment with Iran remains politically delicate in the region, particularly if Trump proceeds with plans to rename the “Persian Gulf” as the “Arabian Gulf”—a move sure to inflame Tehran.
Energy Secretary Chris Wright has described the US and Saudi Arabia as being on a “pathway” to a civil nuclear deal, though he said any announcement would come from the president directly.
Gaza war looms over the visit
While business dominates the trip, the conflict in Gaza will cast a long shadow. Trump has said he wants to broker a ceasefire and end the war, but his decision to skip a visit to Israel—despite previously strong ties with Netanyahu—speaks to mounting tensions.
Saudi Arabia continues to oppose normalisation with Israel without a path to Palestinian statehood, and has condemned suggestions—reportedly originating with the Trump administration—of relocating Palestinians from Gaza to neighbouring Arab countries.
“Trump knows he’ll be hearing ‘Gaza, Gaza, Gaza’ from morning to night,” said Elliot Abrams, a former national security adviser. “It’s not the right time for a Trump–Netanyahu photo op.”
The US is reportedly considering bypassing the Israeli government in negotiations to restore aid deliveries to Gaza, which is in the grip of its worst humanitarian crisis since the March ceasefire collapsed. Former Shin Bet director Ami Ayalon said Trump remained central: “He’s the only one who speaks the same language as Netanyahu.”
Security pacts and strategic leverage
Security is high on the wish list for all three Gulf states. Saudi Arabia is seeking to revive a security agreement with the US that stalled during Trump’s first term. The UAE wants stronger AI and defence ties. Qatar, which already hosts the largest US military base in the region and is designated a major non-NATO ally, hopes to cement its status as an indispensable mediator—particularly in conflicts like Gaza and Syria.
Doha is expected to raise the issue of US sanctions on Syria under the Caesar Act, reportedly pushing for their removal in coordination with Trump. The Qatari government has said it won’t offer support to Syria’s new leadership without US approval.
Each country is approaching the trip with a tailored set of demands, but a shared understanding that Trump’s transactional style favours headline-grabbing announcements.
Ethics questions linger
The visit has also raised questions about potential conflicts of interest. The Trump Organization has active or announced projects in all three countries—including a luxury golf resort in Qatar and recent real estate developments in Saudi Arabia. Ethics watchdogs have warned of blurred lines between Trump’s public role and private business interests.
“This trip, where Trump will meet with foreign officials who can make decisions affecting his company, poses enormous conflicts of interest,” said Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington (CREW).
Nevertheless, Trump’s administration insists the visit is about delivering results for the US economy. Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said the trip would “re-emphasise his vision for a prosperous Middle East where extremism is defeated and commerce thrives.”
