India and Pakistan, two nuclear-armed rivals with a long and bitter history, are locked in their most dangerous confrontation in years, with fears rising that the current escalation could spiral into full-scale war.
Operation Sindoor and the aftermath
The immediate flashpoint was a terrorist attack in April that killed 26 people—mostly Indian tourists—in the mountain town of Pahalgam, in Indian-administered Kashmir. India accused Pakistan-based groups Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed of orchestrating the massacre and responded on May 7 with a coordinated aerial campaign dubbed Operation Sindoor, claiming to strike nine “terrorist infrastructure” sites.
Pakistan says India’s strikes killed 31 people, including children and teenagers, and hit civilian areas as far west as Punjab province. Pakistan’s government labelled the attacks “an act of war” and vowed retaliation.
What followed was one of the largest air skirmishes between the two countries in decades. According to Pakistani sources, 125 fighter jets were scrambled in total. Pakistan claimed to have shot down five Indian aircraft, including three Rafales and a drone. India has not confirmed any losses. One crash site was photographed in Indian-administered Kashmir, but the aircraft’s origin remains unverified.
Drone warfare deepens crisis
On Thursday, India escalated further, launching Israeli-made Harop drones at Pakistani air defense systems near Lahore and Rawalpindi. Pakistan says it downed 29 drones, but falling debris killed two civilians and wounded several others. India said it had “neutralised” Pakistani attempts to strike Indian military targets, accusing Islamabad of attempting missile and drone attacks along the border.
In response to the strikes, Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif convened an emergency meeting of the National Security Committee and warned that retaliation was “increasingly certain.” Defence Minister Khawaja Muhammad Asif later told Reuters that a response from Pakistan was likely, stating, “We have to respond.”
Shelling across the Line of Control
While air attacks dominated headlines, ground skirmishes along the Line of Control (LoC) in Kashmir continued unabated. India reported that 12 civilians were killed by Pakistani shelling, while Pakistan claimed six deaths and up to 50 Indian military casualties—figures India has not verified.
Authorities on both sides of the LoC have ordered mass evacuations. Tens of thousands have fled their homes in Kashmir, with over 2,000 displaced in Pakistan-administered regions alone. In India, shelters have been set up in the north, as residents brace for further conflict. Flights have been suspended at over two dozen airports across both countries.
Diplomatic paralysis
Despite the rising death toll and global concern, communications between the two governments remain frozen. U.S. President Donald Trump initially downplayed the threat, saying, “There’s great tension… but there always has been.” He later offered to mediate, an offer rejected by New Delhi. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has since spoken with Pakistan’s leadership, urging de-escalation.
Other international actors, including the United Nations, China, Japan, and the UAE, have called for restraint. Australia’s foreign ministry expressed concern, advising its citizens in the region to monitor travel alerts closely.
A conflict decades in the making
India and Pakistan have fought three wars since partition in 1947, two of them over Kashmir. The region remains heavily militarised, with deep-rooted mistrust between the neighbours. While India has a larger conventional military and maintains a “no first use” nuclear policy, Pakistan has never ruled out a first strike, citing the imbalance in conventional power.
Security analysts have warned that even a limited nuclear exchange could kill over 20 million people. Yet there is currently no direct hotline or crisis communication mechanism between the two governments—something experts compare unfavourably to the safeguards introduced between the U.S. and Soviet Union during the Cold War.
