Gold prices have surged to fresh record highs, breaching the US$3,300-an-ounce mark on Wednesday, as escalating US-China trade tensions and a plunging US dollar sent investors racing into the safety of bullion.
Gold (Comex) rose 3.52% to US$3,354.60 an ounce, while spot gold gained 3.43% to US$3,341.61—both hitting all-time highs. Earlier in the day, spot prices peaked at US$3,318.80, marking a dramatic acceleration in gold’s already strong 2025 rally.
Trump’s tariffs spark new rally leg
The catalyst for the latest spike was President Donald Trump’s announcement of a probe into critical mineral imports, raising the spectre of additional tariffs and further fracturing of global supply chains.
“Gold remains heavily supported by a broadly weaker dollar, uncertainty around tariff announcements and fears about a global recession,” said Lukman Otunuga, senior research analyst at FXTM.
The US dollar has tumbled to near three-year lows, reinforcing gold’s appeal to international buyers. At the same time, real yields have dropped as markets bet the Federal Reserve may soon be forced to cut interest rates—further increasing gold’s relative attractiveness.
“Gold has moved from US$2,000 to over US$3,000—it feels like a big move. But compared to previous major worldwide events… we could be in for another one of these major moves for gold,” said technical analyst Michael Gable of Fairmont Equities.
Structural bull market underway?
So far this year, gold has gained around 27%, making it one of the best-performing assets globally. With central banks accelerating purchases and investors pouring into gold-backed ETFs, analysts are increasingly treating this rally not as a blip—but as the early phase of a structural bull market.
In Q1 2025 alone, gold ETFs saw inflows of 226.5 tonnes worth US$21.1bn—the largest quarterly total in three years. Meanwhile, China added to its gold reserves for a fifth consecutive month in March.
Bank of America’s latest global fund manager survey showed 42% of respondents expect gold to be the top-performing asset of 2025, up from just 23% in March.
“Gold now is the premier safe haven asset,” said Marc Jocum of Global X. “It could experience record-breaking inflows this month on the back of rapidly rising retail demand.”
Bold new forecasts
Investment banks have raced to revise their price targets higher. Goldman Sachs now expects gold to reach US$3,700 per ounce by year-end, and US$4,000 by mid-2026. UBS has lifted its 2026 average forecast to US$3,500, while Citi re-entered long gold positions last week after taking profits earlier in April.
In an extreme scenario, Goldman sees gold climbing to US$4,500 per ounce by year-end if central bank buying hits 110 tonnes per month, ETF inflows return to pandemic-era highs, and speculative positioning peaks.
“The gold market is kind of thriving in this period of uncertainty, but the foundations are very tangible and real,” said Evy Hambro, global head of thematic investing at BlackRock.
ASX gold miners riding the wave
In Australia, the gold rally has energised the ASX-listed gold sector, sparking M&A activity and bullish analyst upgrades:
- Northern Star Resources has finalised its A$5 billion acquisition of De Grey Mining, securing control over the significant Hemi gold project in Western Australia’s Pilbara region. The acquisition was overwhelmingly approved by De Grey shareholders on April 16, with 99.64% voting in favour. The finalisation of the deal is anticipated by early May, pending court approval. The Hemi project is projected to produce approximately 530,000 ounces of gold annually over its first decade, enhancing Northern Star’s production capacity to an estimated 2.5 million ounces per year by 2028–29.
- Ramelius Resources has made a A$2.4bn bid for Spartan Resources, aiming to create the largest ASX-listed mid-tier gold producer.
- Gold Road Resources recently rejected a A$3.3bn takeover offer from Gold Fields, citing undervaluation.
Goldman Sachs has a BUY rating on Gold Road and raised its target to A$3.40, noting its unhedged exposure and leverage to pricing. UBS has similarly upgraded Newmont’s ASX-listed CDIs to a BUY, with a target of A$91.42.
Smaller companies like Black Cat Syndicate, which has more than tripled over the past year, are also attracting attention.
The rotation away from US havens
Analysts point to a broader global shift, with gold absorbing flows that would historically have gone to US Treasuries or the dollar.
The yield on the 10-year US Treasury has surged to 4.5%, while the dollar index has dropped 2.4% in just a week. The move reflects a sharp deterioration in confidence in traditional US safe-haven assets.
