Australian third quarter GDP looks almost certain to show a big fall when released in early December after retail sales saw a record slide in volume terms of 4.4% for the three months to September thanks to the lockdowns in Sydney, Melbourne and the ACT.
According to the quarterly retail sales figures released on Thursday by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), the big fall in the September three months followed a 0.7% rise in the June quarter.
Judging by early estimates, GDP could fall 3% in the quarter from the three months to June because of the weakness in household spending due to the lockdowns.
Most areas of retailing saw big falls, though food held up with a solid 5% rise for the three months while online retailing also saw some positive growth.
The slide was driven by big falls in the ACT, NSW and Victoria which is where the lockdowns were the longest this year.
The ABS data shows the 4.4% fall in the three months to September was double the 2.2% slide in the June quarter when the first wave of the pandemic and lockdowns hit hard.
ABS Director of Quarterly Economy Wide Statistics Ben James said: “The Delta outbreak from late June led to protracted lockdowns in many mainland jurisdictions, with the restrictions causing many retailers to close their physical stores throughout the September quarter. This resulted in the largest quarterly fall in national sales volumes ever recorded.”
“Similar to previous lockdown periods, sales volumes fell in most of the discretionary spending industries with cafes restaurants and takeaway food services (-18.7 per cent), clothing, footwear and personal accessory retailing (-25.1 per cent), department stores (-19.5 per cent) and household goods retailing (-4.3 per cent) significantly down in volume terms.”
Food retailing volumes rose 5.3% as consumers unable to eat out, increased their grocery spending with large periods of time at home.
The ABS said that volumes for ‘other retailing’, the category that includes large online-only retailers (such as Catch, Kogan and Temple & Webster), were up 0.9% “with an increase in online spending during the quarter.”
New South Wales (down 11.6%) “experienced the largest volume fall of all the states and territories, reflecting the lockdown restrictions in place in Greater Sydney and throughout most regions for the entire September quarter. Victoria (down 4.5%) and the ACT (down 13.9%) were the other state and territory to see volume falls.
Other states and territories that were less affected by lockdowns all saw increased sales volumes in the September quarter. Western Australia led the rises, up 4.1% as it remained shut off from the rest of the country, followed by South Australia (1.7%), Queensland (0.2%), Tasmania (2.2%) and the Northern Territory (0.2%).
For the month retail sales rose 1.3% in September from August to be 1.7% higher compared with September 2020.
