Diary: US Politics, UK GDP, RBNZ Decision

By Glenn Dyer | More Articles by Glenn Dyer

After the madness of last week, there’s going to be a much quieter pace of events – there’s a new president whose election will soak up pressure and attention.

There will be speculation about his cabinet and senior officials in Treasury, heading regulators such as the head of the Securities and Exchange Commission, the Commodities Futures Trading Commission, his economic adviser, Secretary of State, and Federal Communications Commission.

Biden had already appointed Gary Gensler, a former head of the Commodities Commission to look at Wall Street overnight review. Gensler is a former Obama official and he now seems likely to head up the SEC, making him the most powerful figure in the markets.

Gensler is a former partner at Goldman Sachs and would be perhaps the most experienced market regulator in recent decades.

Still, there is a lot ahead – GDP updates from the Eurozone, UK, Russia, Hong Kong, Malaysia, Philippines, and Japan. There’s also a monetary policy decision from the Reserve Bank of NZ, Chinese inflation, earnings here and in the US, Asia, and Europe, a monthly business survey in Australia.

In Australia, the NAB business survey for October tomorrow is likely to show a further pick up in business conditions and confidence on the back of reopening and the Westpac/Melbourne Institute survey of consumer confidence for November on Wednesday is likely to have hung on to recent gains, according to the AMP’s Chief Economist, Dr. Shane Oliver.

The local corporate calendar sees more with AGMs (media companies, Seven West Media and Nine Entertainment are on Thursday, November 12) as well as investor days, including those of Woodside Petroleum and Telstra.

There are a few earnings reports – Incitec Pivot (two months – change of balance data), AusNet Services, EclipX Group, Graincorp, and Xero all report profits as well as James Hardie.

The Commonwealth Bank issues its first-quarter update on Wednesday.

Across the Tasman, the Reserve Bank of NZ is expected to leave monetary policy on hold on Wednesday but continue to signal the possible introduction of a negative interest rate regime next year.

In the US, data on job openings and hiring along with small business confidence for October will be released Tuesday and core consumer price inflation (on Thursday) is expected to remain unchanged at 1.7% year on year.

The Fed’s bank lending officer survey (Monday) will provide a guide to whether lending standards have eased.

In the US Veterans Day holiday falls on Wednesday.

The pace of quarterly earnings reports slows – McDonald’s and Cisco are among the majors due to report, along with department store chain, Dillard’s.

With two shopping mall operators collapsing a week ago and going into Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, the results due this week from the largest mall operator in the US, Simon Property Group, will be watched closely by nervy analysts.

Another mall and property group, Brookfield Property Partners, also reports. Some of its mall owning companies have run into financial problems.

Chocolate Group, Hershey’s, and plant-based products group, Beyond Meat, are also down to report this week.

China sees consumer and producer price inflation on Tuesday and Dr. Oliver says consumer inflation “is likely to fall to 0.7%yoy reflecting slower growth in food prices with underlying inflation remaining soft.” Friday sees data on vehicle sales and bank lending released.

About Glenn Dyer

Glenn Dyer has been a finance journalist and TV producer for more than 40 years. He has worked at Maxwell Newton Publications, Queensland Newspapers, AAP, The Australian Financial Review, The Nine Network and Crikey.

View more articles by Glenn Dyer →