Diary: Presidential Debates, US Employment, Global Manufacturing

By Glenn Dyer | More Articles by Glenn Dyer

Highlights of the coming week include US jobless data for September, worldwide manufacturing activity surveys (especially China’s), and the first of the US presidential debates.

In Australia, there’s the usual end of month/start of month data drops and next Sunday is the start of daylight saving for 2020-21.

Globally there’s the end of the September quarter so far as the US and some European and Asian earnings reports are concerned and the September 30 half or full year for some Australian companies, such as the big banks.

In Australia, there’s the August credit growth data from the Reserve Bank tomorrow, as well as August building approvals from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).

The CoreLogic September home price data is out of Wednesday (and should show a small fall), ABS job vacancies for the 3 months to August (also Wednesday) to show a solid rise, and August retail sales (Friday) to confirm a 4.2% decline.

Wednesday, September 30 sees the end of the financial year for a number of local companies including Westpac, ANZ, and the NAB.

Orica (full year) and CSR (interim) are other companies and Nufarm changes to a September 30 balance data as well.

The Commonwealth bank’s first-quarter also ends and it will release an update next month as will a host of mining companies with their quarterly reports and retailers (like Coles and Woolies) which will produce first-quarter sales data later in October.

Wednesday also sees the release of the start of month surveys of Australian manufacturing, and later in the week, services.

In the US, September jobs data to be released Friday will be the main focus, along with Tuesday’s first debate between President Donald Trump and challenger, Joe Biden.

The AMP’s Chief Economist, Shane Oliver says payrolls are expected to continue to recover but the pace of gains is likely to slow to around 850,000 with the unemployment rate falling to 8.2% after the surprisingly sharp fall seen in August.

In other data, there’s consumer confidence on Tuesday and pending home sales on Wednesday, personal spending on Thursday despite a fall in personal income.

The start of month surveys of manufacturing on Wednesday and services, later in the week are forecast to show a slight slowing in the pace of US activity.

Friday sees the release of the monthly consumption expenditure survey favoured by the Fed with its important reading of US core personal consumption deflator inflation for August which is forecast to rise to an annual 1.5% (still well short of the Fed’s target of 2%).

Europe sees the release of eurozone core CPI inflation for September on Wednesday and unemployment on Thursday. That is forecast rise, while inflation is forecast to ease

Japan sees the release of the September quarter Tankan business conditions survey on Thursday by the Bank of Japan which is expected to show an improvement but August jobs data (Friday) is likely to soften slightly.

China’s September business conditions surveys (two) are out on Wednesday and are expected to remain around reasonable growth levels.

About Glenn Dyer

Glenn Dyer has been a finance journalist and TV producer for more than 40 years. He has worked at Maxwell Newton Publications, Queensland Newspapers, AAP, The Australian Financial Review, The Nine Network and Crikey.

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