Apart from the ongoing global focus on the coronavirus pandemic, the coming week looks like being relatively quiet so far as economic news is concerned.
The Australian June 30 reporting season will be the big business news locally, along with preliminary retail sales data for July.
There’s also the minutes from the last RBA board meeting which will be a re-run of the lengthy post-meeting statement a fortnight ago and the third Statement on Monetary Policy two weeks ago, and Governor, Philip Lowe’s comments to Federal parliament’s Standing Economics Committee on Friday.
On the data front, the preliminary retail sales data for July are expected to remain flat but the CBA’s composite business conditions PMI for August to have fallen slightly reflecting the Victorian lockdown. Both are due Friday.
The Australian June half profit reporting season will ramp up with many major companies due to report.
The AMP’s chief economist, Dr. Shane Oliver says consensus expectations remain for a 21% slump in earnings due to the hit from coronavirus. “financials will be the hardest hit with an expected 29% slump in earnings led by insurers and the banks, followed by industrials with a 15% fall in earnings and resources with 12%.”
“Consumer discretionary may be the only sector to see a rise.” We will get a good idea about that with Coles Group, the major supermarkets chain, reporting tomorrow.
In the US, there are the minutes from the last Fed meeting (on Wednesday). Dr. Oliver says the Fed is expected to remain dovish and commentary consistent with a move in September to inflation average targeting which will imply a desire for a period of above-target inflation.
The US sees the release of data on home building conditions (tonight) and housing starts (tomorrow) and existing home sales (on Friday).
Friday sees the release of August business conditions survey results which will be reflecting the rebound in coronavirus cases.
Eurozone business conditions surveys for August (also Friday) are also at risk of some pullback reflecting the second wave of coronavirus cases in parts of Europe – France, Spain, Ireland for example.
Dr. Oliver says Japanese June quarter GDP is expected to show a -7.6% quarter on quarter slump on the back of the coronavirus lockdowns.
Japanese consumer price inflation remained low in July and the August business conditions PMIs may also have been affected by the recent resurgence in coronavirus infections.
Monetary policy decisions will come in Indonesia and the Philippines while June quarter GDP numbers in Thailand are expected to make grim reading, reflecting the trend seen across many Asian economies where data has already been released.
And finally, China has the one-year prime loan rate decision announcement on Thursday. No move is expected.
