|SPI Overnight (Sep)||5892.00||– 45.00||– 0.76%|
|S&P ASX 200||5977.50||+ 58.30||0.98%|
|S&P500||3155.22||– 29.82||– 0.94%|
|Nasdaq Comp||10390.84||– 226.60||– 2.13%|
|S&P500 VIX||32.19||+ 4.90||17.96%|
|US 10-year yield||0.64||+ 0.01||1.11%|
|USD Index||96.55||– 0.10||– 0.10%|
By Greg Peel
Down to the Crossroads
The NSW premier last night rolled back previously lifted restrictions on NSW pubs and clubs given outbreaks in Casula in Sydney and Jindabyne in the Snowies, among others. It’s not back to full lockdown, but it may be a harbinger of things to come.
The move was anticipated yesterday, but seemingly unimportant to the local market. The ASX200 did not hold onto its early 80 point rally (which took the index back to 6000), but still closed up 58 points while playing follow the leader with Wall Street.
Wall Street had rallied on positive vaccine news, ignoring the rising US case count, but turned tail last night. So the Australian market fell on Friday but rallied yesterday and now the futures are showing down -45 points this morning, so sometimes writing this report is all a bit pointless.
For the record, the banks (+1.6%) followed US banks higher yesterday to be the biggest points contributor. Utilities posted the biggest percentage move (+2.7%). AGL Energy ((AGL)) rose 3.1% after announcing the appointment of a new head of cyber security.
Energy (+1.0%) rallied back after falling on Friday, yo-yoing on oil prices, which were down again last night.
Iron ore futures took off yesterday on news of more supply issues in Brazil, sending materials up 1.8%. Spot iron ore is up 4.5% overnight.
The consumer sectors both put on 0.7% despite increasing lockdowns, while healthcare fell -0.7% because it had risen on Friday.
IT was the worst performer, down -1.0%, after TechnologyOne ((TNE)) responded to a negative AFR article and fell -6.4%.
Among individual stock winners, it was all about the money. Platinum Asset Management ((PTM)) rose 6.8% on positive FUM news, Virgin Money UK ((VUK)) followed with 5.4%, and Zip Co ((Z1P)) is still playing catch up to Afterpay, up 5.4%.
Smaller BNPL aspirant Sezzle ((SZL)) came back on the boards after a capital raising and jumped 22%.
Beyond TechnologyOne, the biggest losers were biotechs.
Yet, as noted, the index will be heading the other way today.
You can check out any time you like
The governor of California last night ordered all bars, restaurants, theatres and other places of indoor gatherings to shut down again state-wide. In 30 counties, including LA and representing 80% of state population, the order is extended to all non-essential offices, malls, churches and so forth.
Not quite the full lockdown, but not far off. California is the most populous state, and produces 15% of national GDP.
Wall Street tanked on the news. However, Wall Street was already tanking when the news came out late in the session.
From the opening bell, the Dow jumped over 560 points on fresh vaccine news. The news was that two consortiums with vaccine hopefuls, led by Pfizer and AstraZeneca respectively, will have their candidates fast-tracked through testing FDA protocols.
The news is not fresh at all. The FDA has said all along it will fast-track vaccine candidates.
It mattered not in the end, given as soon as the S&P500 hit positive for the year, it turned and fled. There had to be some point at which profits would be taken on seemingly unstoppable Big Tech names, and this was the trigger. The Nasdaq swung from a new intraday high close down -2.1%.
The Californian news only served to speed up what had already begun.
Amazon hit a new high, and closed down -3%.
Tesla rallied 17% — mindboggling, but bad luck for the Johnny-come-latelies. It closed down -3%.
The damage was all done in the “growth stocks”. “Value” held its own, and once again the banks were the best performers on the day. Bank earnings reports begin to flow from tonight.
The experience so far since March has been that every time there’s a wobble in Big Tech, it doesn’t last long. Value (such as reopening story stocks) has a moment in the sun, but then the clouds return. Will this prove to be the case again, or is Wall Street finally succumbing to a bubble set-up?
Value may not be able to maintain its support if other states begin to follow California’s lead. If the country re-enters lockdowns, analysts can tear up their September and December quarter earnings forecasts, which currently predict a bounce out of a June quarter already written off.
It is possible that earnings season delivers a wealth of upside surprises, but only because analysts, lacking any guidance from companies themselves, have marked June quarter forecasts down so low. But now that the virus is reaccelerating, companies may have to throw up their arms with regard guidance once more.
The Great Unknown has not left the building.
|Spot Metals,Minerals & Energy Futures|
|Gold (oz)||1802.00||+ 3.40||0.19%|
|Silver (oz)||19.01||+ 0.33||1.77%|
|Copper (lb)||2.95||+ 0.09||3.32%|
|Aluminium (lb)||0.77||+ 0.01||1.83%|
|Lead (lb)||0.85||+ 0.01||1.28%|
|Nickel (lb)||6.04||– 0.05||– 0.84%|
|Zinc (lb)||1.00||+ 0.02||2.34%|
|West Texas Crude||39.60||– 0.95||– 2.34%|
|Brent Crude||42.16||– 1.08||– 2.50%|
|Iron Ore (t) futures||107.05||0.00||0.00%|
Iron ore has taken the limelight, but a strike in Chile and floods in China, in an area where copper cathode production is centred, have sent the copper price soaring further.
The California news is not good news for summer driving, and thus for oil.
Gold is steady but that gold/silver ratio is beginning to close fast.
The Aussie is down -0.2% at US$0.6940.
The SPI Overnight closed down -45 points or -0.8%.
The NAB business confidence survey for June is out today.
China reports June trade numbers.
The US reports June CPI.
Whitehaven Coal ((WHC)) posts a June quarter production report.
The Australian share market over the past thirty days…
|BROKER RECOMMENDATION CHANGES PAST THREE TRADING DAYS|
|AGL||AGL Energy||Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral||Macquarie|
|APT||Afterpay||Upgrade to Overweight from Equal-weight||Morgan Stanley|
|AWC||Alumina||Downgrade to Neutral from Buy||Citi|
|CGR||CML Group||Upgrade to Add from Hold||Morgans|
|EVN||Evolution Mining||Downgrade to Sell from Neutral||Citi|
|GMG||Goodman Grp||Downgrade to Neutral from Buy||Citi|
|NCM||Newcrest Mining||Downgrade to Neutral from Buy||Citi|
|PPC||Peet & Company||Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform||Macquarie|
|PRU||Perseus Mining||Downgrade to Neutral from Buy||Citi|
|SAR||Saracen Mineral||Downgrade to Neutral from Buy||Citi|
|Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral||Macquarie|
|Downgrade to Neutral from Buy||UBS|
|TWE||Treasury Wine Estates||Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform||Macquarie|
|Upgrade to Overweight from Equal-weight||Morgan Stanley|
|Downgrade to Lighten from Hold||Ord Minnett|
|Downgrade to Neutral from Buy||UBS|
|VOC||Vocus Group||Upgrade to Buy from Neutral||UBS|
|WAF||West African Resources||Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform||Macquarie|
|WSP||Whispir||Downgrade to Hold from Buy||Ord Minnett|
|WTC||Wisetech Global||Downgrade to Lighten from Hold||Ord Minnett|