A massive week globally for markets as China’s coronavirus crisis deepens, investors head for safety in bonds and gold, concerns re-emerge about the health of the US economy with the January jobs data due on Friday and the mixed weak 4th quarter earnings season continuing.
In Australia the RBA meets for the first time tomorrow, there’s a lot of important data due for release, the December half earnings season starts, but investors will be looking to withstand a selling wave after a big fall in futures on Friday and the re-opening of the Chinese markets late today.
Other central banks meet in India, Thailand, and the Philippines. There are the usual monthly surveys of manufacturing and services activity – China’s official manufacturing survey on Friday eased but the services survey rose.
But there was no impact seen from the coronavirus because the survey was done prior to the Lunar New Year on January 25 when it became clear the crisis was deepening very rapidly.
In Europe, the UK is now post-Brexit and will have to swim or sink on its own abilities (such as the virus crisis) and not blame someone else, as it has been doing for the past decade or more.
In the US, the 2020 presidential campaign kicks off on Tuesday with the Iowa caucuses for the Democratic Party. That will grab a lot of attention while markets are having a conniption or two.
The official monthly employment report for December will be out on Friday in the US with a lot of interest on the slowing level of new job creation. Economists are wondering if this slowing rate of job growth will continue in 2020.
The December payroll data came in below forecasts at 145,000, the lowest since May, and annual wage growth softened to 2.9%, below estimates of 3.1% and the 2019 high of 3.4%.
The unemployment rate meanwhile held steady at 3.5%.
Growth in the US meanwhile struck a 10-month high (2.1% annual, well short of Donald Trump’s much-trumpeted 3% target).
Eurozone growth remained subdued with the surveys of manufacturing and services as well as German trade and industrial production data will give important steers on whether a recession has been avoided (as it now seems).
The RBA rate decision, data for December retail sales, car sales, trade, and building approvals will be issued, along with house prices for January.
RBA governor Phil Lowe has a major speech on Wednesday on the year ahead and then fronts the House of Representative Economics Committee on Friday morning when the RBA also releases its first of four Statements On Monetary Policy for 2020.
The December earnings season starts stepping up property developer Mirvac is one major, while property plays Dexus and BWP Trust are down to release their results.
CIMIC will issue its detailed December half and full-year figures and huge loss and write-downs that were warned of in late January.
Globally around 530 or more companies report December quarter or half-year financial figures in the US, Australia, the UK, Europe, and Asia.
The US December reporting season continues with more than 100 S&P 500 members issuing figures, led by Alphabet (Google), Fox, News Corp, Disney, Ford, General Motors, Merck, Snap, Twitter, Yum Brands, Chipotle, Costco and Uber.
