Next week leads us up to a Sunday dated December 15. Next week is thus a binary risk for investors.
If a trade deal is signed, no matter how wishy-washy, that results in the December 15 tariffs being cancelled, Wall Street should rally, albeit tempered by already hopeful valuations.
If a trade deal is not signed, and the December 15 tariffs proceed, Wall Street will tank.
If a trade deal is not signed, but the December 15 tariffs are delayed for some period pending further negotiations, then this would suggest a balance of relief, temporarily, but also of concern that a trade deal still cannot be reached, despite having been “close” for 18 months.
That’s trade, so on to monetary policy. The RBA governor speaks on Tuesday and the RBA issues a Bulletin on Thursday, the Fed statement is out on Wednesday night and the ECB holds its first meeting on Thursday with Christine Lagarde fronting the press.
The US will see numbers next week for inflation and retail sales.
Locally we’ll see the NAB business and Westpac consumer confidence surveys.
IOOF Holdings ((IFL)) will host an investor day next week while Bank of Queensland ((BOQ)), Elders ((ELD)) and Pendal Group ((PDL)) hold AGMs.
The public is advised to stay well clear of the Darling Harbour area of Sydney on Thursday which will be in lock-down amidst a heavy security presence.
Westpac ((WBC)) is holding its AGM.
For shareholders attending, projectiles will be available at the door.
