September quarter production was -10% below UBS estimates with costs 12% higher. The broker suggests, being the fourth quarter of weaker-than-expected production, market confidence has been dented and this is potentially affecting the company’s premium valuation.
At its core, the past 12 months performance stems from the turnaround at Pogo taking longer than guided and UBS maintains a Neutral rating, reducing the target to $11.20 from $12.60.
Target price is $11.20.Current Price is $10.29. Difference: $0.91 – (brackets indicate current price is over target). If NST meets the UBS target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).