A weak US manufacturing PMI, followed by a weak private-sector jobs report, followed by a weak services PMI sparked a sell-off on Wall Street this week, and a re-emergence of the R-word. All was to hinge on tonight’s official jobs report, except that Wall Street bounced last night from a perceived oversold position.
So what does that mean for the jobs report? Hard to tell. But bond yields are back down, gold is back up and the VIX is again near 20. The odds of a Fed rate cut at the end of the month have firmed to 90% and the assumption Trump will simply have to expedite some sort of trade agreement with China heading into an election year has become ever stronger.
Talks resume on Thursday.
Ahead of those, the US will see PPI and CPI numbers and the minutes of the September Fed meeting, which brought a -25 point cut, and Jerome Powell will speak.
The following week will bring US-EU trade talks, and the day the Fed delivers its decision, October 30, is the day before the Brexit deadline.
China is back on board next week after the 70th-anniversary celebrations and week-long holiday. What will Xi decide to do about Hong Kong?
In a battered and bruised Australia, next week brings ANZ’s job ad series, NAB’s business confidence survey and Westpac’s consumer confidence survey, along with numbers for housing finance.
On the stock market, the ex-dividend run is now tailing off, only to be met by the ramp-up of AGM season. Next week’s meetings include those of Baby Bunting ((BBN)), Brambles ((BXB)), Domino’s Pizza ((DMP)) and Transurban ((TCL)).
Note that FNArena’s service will be suspended on Monday for the NSW Labour Day holiday given broker research will be suspended, despite the ASX being open.
Daylight savings begins on Sunday which means that as of Tuesday morning, the NYSE will close at 7am Sydney time.
