The focus for markets next week will be on any trickle of news coming out of the junior level Sino-US trade discussions in Washington, with a dread of any explosive tweets. Wall Street is sitting just below the all-time high hit in late July, at which point the news on trade sounded positive until suddenly Trump upped the ante on tariffs. The previous all-time high was in April, at which point the news on trade sounded positive until suddenly Trump upped the ante on tariffs.
Wall Street is set for a binary outcome. Actual progress on trade will see new all-time highs posted, regression will see previous lows tested. No one, however, expects a comprehensive “deal” in the near future. Expectations are for concessions to be made. Beijing has already taken some steps and Trump needs to sort out something ahead of next year’s election.
Monday sees flash estimates of manufacturing PMIs from Australia, Japan, the eurozone and US.
Other US data across the week include consumer confidence, house prices, new home sales and durable goods. The June quarter GDP result will again be revised, but more important will be Friday’s PCE inflation numbers for August.
China will report industrial profits on Friday.
The RBNZ holds a policy meeting on Wednesday.
It’s a quiet week economically in Australia. The RBA governor speaks on Tuesday.
The ex-dividend season keeps rolling along next week, and there are still some substantial names in there. More importantly nevertheless is that the actual dividend payment “season” will catch up as of next week, pouring billions in cash into institutions that then have to reinvest.
Thursday is quarterly stock option expiry, but this is typically a benign affair compared to yesterday’s index derivative expiry.