Up until last night a -25 rate cut from the Fed on July 31 was considered as good as certain, with -50 points considered around a 30% chance. The New York Fed president’s comments last night have led to that probability increasing.
One is reminded of the Fed’s initial “shock & awe!” cut of -50 points in late 2007, intended to end the Credit Crunch. There followed the GFC, zero rates and QE.
Informing the FOMC’s coin toss of -25 or -50 next week will be numbers for US manufacturing (estimate of July PMI), durable goods orders and at week’s end, the first estimate of June quarter GDP.
Australia, Japan and the eurozone will also see flash PMI estimates.
The ECB holds a policy meeting on Thursday and the RBNZ on Friday.
Local resource sector production reports continue into next week with the likes of Evolution Mining ((EVN)), OZ Minerals ((OZL)), Fortescue Metals ((FMG)) and Newcrest Mining ((NCM)) among that number.
Macquarie Group ((MQG)) will hold its AGM.
ResMed ((RMD)) will report quarterly earnings.
