Diary: US Jobs, ECB Meets, Trade Tensions

By Glenn Dyer | More Articles by Glenn Dyer

Outside of Australia’s big week, there’s plenty from offshore to grab the attention of investors, topped by the US jobs report on Friday night.

Tonight there’s the usual start of month surveys of manufacturing activity (the first of two from China on Friday showed a slowdown that was bigger than forecast).

Later in the week we will get the service sector survey details for the world’s major economies (the surveys include Australia).

There’s Donald Trump’s latest tariff antics, this time attacking Mexico, he’s visiting the UK this week for the 75th anniversary of the D-Day landings and has already promised to raise the controversial question of Chinese technology companies like Huawei’s in Britain’s new mobile networks.

Prime Minister Theresa May steps down from the UK leadership on Friday – the day after the D-Day celebrations.

That will come a few hours before the big global data release of the month – the jobs and unemployment data this time for May.

The US payroll employment for May is expected to show a gain of around 190,000 jobs keeping unemployment at 3.6% although with wages growth remaining benign at around 3.2% year on year.

Several Fed leaders are due to speak this week – the most watched will be chair Jay Powell who makes opening remarks and will take questions at the start of a two function at the Chicago Fed.

Several other leading Fed members speak at the same conference on Tuesday and Wednesday, so the Fed’s view of the economy and the world should be clear by Thursday?

In Europe, the European Central Bank (ECB) meets and won’t change monetary policy.

The AMP’s Dr. Shane Oliver believes the ECB “may announce that its negative interest rate on bank reserves only applies beyond required reserve levels, which will be a bias towards easing of monetary policy.

First quarter GDP figures are expected for the EU this week – quarter on quarter growth of 0.4% is expected.

On the data front unemployment (Tuesday) is expected to be unchanged in April at 7.7% and core inflation for May (also Tuesday) is forecast to remain soft at 1.3%.

China sees the release of the private survey of manufacturing today and services on Wednesday.

South Korea releases its latest trade data for the month of April.

Glenn Dyer

About Glenn Dyer

Glenn Dyer has been a finance journalist and TV producer for more than 40 years. He has worked at Maxwell Newton Publications, Queensland Newspapers, AAP, The Australian Financial Review, The Nine Network and Crikey.

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