Overnight: Mild Enthusiasm

World Overnight
SPI Overnight (Mar) 6049.00 – 3.00 – 0.05%
S&P ASX 200 6089.80 + 23.70 0.39%
S&P500 2775.60 + 29.87 1.09%
Nasdaq Comp 7472.41 + 45.46 0.61%
DJIA 25883.25 + 339.98 1.33%
S&P500 VIX 14.91 – 1.31 – 8.08%
US 10-year yield 2.67 + 0.01 0.34%
USD Index 96.78 – 0.12 – 0.12%
FTSE100 7219.47 – 17.21 – 0.24%
DAX30 11299.20 – 0.60 – 0.01%

By Greg Peel

Industrial Crunch

The local futures showed up 53 points yesterday morning which while matching the S&P500’s overnight move in percentage terms, still looked a little ambitious for our market. Sure enough, the ASX200 did clock up a 50 point rally in the first hour, but that was it.

From eleven till lunchtime we drifted steadily back to halve that gain and then traded sideways for the rest of the session. Indeed, the first week of February got us back over the 6000 mark and as result season has played out, the index has drifted sideways ever since.

All the action has been in individual stock moves related to earnings results and a seemingly steady stream of last minute profit warnings ahead of result releases.

Take Bingo Industries ((BIN)) for example.

The recycler is due to report in a week’s time but yesterday downgraded earnings growth guidance to flat from a prior 15-20%, blaming a faster than expected decline in residential construction, a decision not to increase prices and a reconfiguring of development projects. Bingo shed half its value on the day. There was no chance to sell on the way down – the stock closed on Monday at $2.30 and opened yesterday at $1.39, closing at $1.17.

Also issuing a profit warning, although not due to report until after the regular result season was Bank of Queensland ((BOQ)), which warned profits could fall by as much as -10% year on year. The share price fell -6.3%, having already been thumped last week when peer Bendigo & Adelaide Bank ((BEN)) delivered a weak result.

Bingo topped the ASX200 leaders’ board yesterday, unsurprisingly, and BOQ came in third. In second place was employee management SaaS company Smartgroup Corp ((SIQ)), which disappointed with its result and fell -9%.

Another stock to disappoint was travel agent Helloworld ((HLO)), not in the index, which fell -7% after downgrading guidance. But the day wasn’t all about disasters.

Automotive Holdings ((AHG)) fell -8.2% on Friday following its result, which included a write-down of the company’s albatross, being its refrigerated logistics business. It seems investors then had a think about it, and yesterday Auto Holdings jumped 8.6% to top the leaders’ board. Note that 8% up from the bottom does not get you back to where you fell -8% from the top.

Kitchen & Bathroom specialist GWA Group ((GWA)) took out the silver with its result release, rising 4.4%, while latex safety gear supplier Ansell ((ANN)) got the bronze with 4.1%.

Outside the index, it’s been uncertain times for investment platforms in the wake of the RC, and an early train wreck in this result season was Praemium ((PPS)). But yesterday peer Netwealth ((NWL)) jumped 7% following its result.

From a sector perspective, industrials was the only loser on the day in falling -0.7%. Consumer discretionary closed flat, but all other sectors finished in the green. The banks only just got there, with Westpac’s ((WBC)) benign trading update helping to counter BOQ’s fall from grace.

Energy (+1.6%) starred yet again as the oil price keeps rising while Materials (+1.0%) is caught in the updraught of US-China optimism.

Yesterday the coin came up heads for both Telstra and CSL. Telcos rose 1.0% and healthcare 0.8%.

Nothing ambitious about the futures call this morning, down -3 with Wall Street closed. From here on the day’s list of reporting companies begins to get very, very long.

Commodities

Spot Metals,Minerals & Energy Futures
Gold (oz) 1326.20 + 4.80 0.36%
Silver (oz) 15.78 + 0.02 0.13%
Copper (lb) 2.84 + 0.04 1.45%
Aluminium (lb) 0.83 – 0.00 – 0.19%
Lead (lb) 0.92 – 0.02 – 1.86%
Nickel (lb) 5.66 + 0.04 0.77%
Zinc (lb) 1.20 – 0.01 – 0.88%
West Texas Crude (Feb) 56.06 + 0.22 0.39%
Brent Crude (Apr) 66.50 + 0.21 0.32%
Iron Ore (t) futures 88.80 + 1.45 1.66%

Not a lot to report.

Copper, iron ore, gold and oil continue to rise on the trade optimism theme, helped by another -0.1% dip for the US dollar index.

The Aussie is flat at US$0.7130.

Today

The SPI Overnight closed down -3 points.

The minutes of the February May RBA meeting – the first for this year – are due today. We recall that the shift in stance to neutral from a prior latent hawkishness was revealed by Dr Lowe in a speech subsequent to the release of the February statement, not in the statement per se.

BHP Group ((BHP)) is in the earnings frame today, along with Cochlear ((COH)), Coles ((COL)), IOOF Holdings ((IFL)), Oil Search ((OSH)) and Seven West Media ((SWM)), along with many others.

The Australian share market over the past thirty days…

BROKER RECOMMENDATION CHANGES PAST THREE TRADING DAYS
ABP ABACUS PROPERTY GROUP Downgrade to Neutral from Buy Citi
AMP AMP Downgrade to Neutral from Buy Citi
Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate Ord Minnett
ASX ASX Downgrade to Sell from Hold Deutsche Bank
BAP BAPCOR LIMITED Upgrade to Add from Hold Morgans
BBN BABY BUNTING Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral Macquarie
BRG BREVILLE GROUP Upgrade to Neutral from Sell UBS
Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral Credit Suisse
Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy Ord Minnett
CCX CITY CHIC Downgrade to Neutral from Buy Citi
CL1 CLASS Downgrade to Reduce from Hold Morgans
CWY CLEANAWAY WASTE MANAGEMENT Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform Credit Suisse
Downgrade to Hold from Buy Deutsche Bank
Downgrade to Neutral from Buy UBS
DHG DOMAIN HOLDINGS Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform Macquarie
GMG GOODMAN GRP Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral Credit Suisse
HLS HEALIUS Upgrade to Add from Hold Morgans
LNK LINK ADMINISTRATION Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold Ord Minnett
Downgrade to Sell from Hold Deutsche Bank
MFG MAGELLAN FINANCIAL GROUP Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform Macquarie
Downgrade to Hold from Add Morgans
Downgrade to Neutral from Buy UBS
NCM NEWCREST MINING Downgrade to Sell from Neutral UBS
TCL TRANSURBAN GROUP Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform Macquarie
TGR TASSAL GROUP Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform Credit Suisse
TWE TREASURY WINE ESTATES Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral Credit Suisse
Downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight Morgan Stanley
Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate Ord Minnett
URW UNIBAIL-RODAMCO-WESTFIELD Downgrade to Underperform from Outperform Macquarie
VAH VIRGIN AUSTRALIA Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral Credit Suisse
WPL WOODSIDE PETROLEUM Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate Ord Minnett

About Greg Peel

Greg Peel joined Macquarie Bank in 1986 and acquired trading experience in equities, currency, fixed income and commodities derivatives, ultimately being appointed director of equity derivatives trading. He later published In With The Smart Money (a plain English guide to the mysterious world of financial markets and derivatives) and acted as a consultant to boutique investment funds. In 2004 Greg joined FNArena as a contributing writer. He is now a director and principal of the company. Greg compliments the journalistic background of the FNArena team with lengthy experience as a financial markets proprietary trader.

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