Next week is Thanksgiving week in the US. All US markets are closed on Thursday, the NYSE closes early on the Friday, and for all intents and purposes Wednesday is also a half-day, albeit not officially, as everyone tries to get home for Thanksgiving.
So usually we can write off anything from after Wednesday lunchtime, but that’s not to say low volumes can’t exacerbate volatility.
The Friday is known as Black Friday. For some reason Americans decide that once Thanksgiving is done with they can suddenly go out and do all their Christmas shopping, the result being retailers who are showing a loss to that point on inventory build-up ahead of Christmas see their profits go “into the black”.
In the internet era, Black Friday is now followed by Cyber Monday – the online equivalent. Retailers offer big discounts on the Friday and the Monday to entice Americans into Christmas spending.
Or at least, they used to. Just as marketing tossers in Australia decide Black Friday can be something else they can latch on to downunder as another retail rip-off, like Halloween, despite no connection to Thanksgiving, Black Friday in the US is being more and more diluted every year. Shops are now allowed to open on Thanksgiving day, and discounts and promotions tend now to last all week.
But that week, and into the next, does remain critical for US consumer spending and as a barometer for how the US consumer-driven economy will finish the year.
US data releases next week include housing sentiment and starts, existing home sales, durable goods, consumer sentiment and a flash estimate of the November manufacturing PMI.
In Australia, the only economic event of note is the release of the minutes of the November RBA meeting.
On the local stock front, AGM season rolls on. It’s another busy week. Please refer to the FNArena Calendar.
Earnings results/updates are due from ALS ltd ((ALQ)), CYBG ((CYB)), OzForex ((OFX)) and TechnologyOne ((TNE)), all on Tuesday.
