Australia is heading for its biggest ever trade surplus according to data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics thanks to the rebound in commodity prices and the growing pace of LNG export volumes.
The ABS yesterday reported that seasonally adjusted trade balance surged to a surplus of $2.47 billion in May from the sharply downwardly revised surplus of just $90 million in Aril (from the surplus of $555 million originally reported).
The country is now looking at a surplus in excess of $14 billion for 2016-17. We will know when the trade data forJune is released by the ABS on August 3. The cumulative net surplus for the 11 months to May was a seasonally adjusted $12.459 billion.
Another surplus similar to May’s would push that easily over $14 billion. But on a trend basis (which smooths out the month to month volatility (as we saw in April) we are looking at a much bigger figure – upwards of $15 billion.
The cumulative net surplus on a trend basis for the first 11 months was $13.315 billion, and a repeat of May’s $1.956 billion would push that well past $15 billion.
That would be well in excess of the $13.596 billion surplus (seasonally adjusted) reported for 2010-11 and the halcyon days of the last great China and resource investment boom.
The previous trend high was a surplus of $16.607 billion, also for 2010-11.
The May trade report from the ABS showed exports rose 9% thanks to a rebound in coal shipments following the disruptions caused by Cyclone Debbie in late March and through April, while imports were up just 1%. But the reduced surplus for April of $550 million first reported in early June was slashed to just $90 million (seasonally adjusted) in yesterday’s report.
With volumes down as well, that won’t help the contribution from next exports to second quarter GDP, but the figures for May show that there was a solid rebound and figures for June are likely to continue that trend so the overall contribution could end up neutral, with a big surge in the three months to September.
