It’s National Accounts week, and so far the signs are that GDP for the third quarter will be weak – not minus, but not much either.
Last week saw a decline in capital expenditure for the quarter of 4% (13.7% for the year) and if that’s combined with weak retail sales and net exports, it looks like Wednesday’s GDP growth number will be no much above zero – maybe 0.1-0.2%.
Here’s a chart of GDP up to now – that rise in the annual rate of growth over the past year is about the head south again.
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