It’s the usual quiet week of the month where the flow of data dips (the so-called ‘flash’ reports on manufacturing activity are the only global data of any note), the earnings season in the US, Europe and Asia is running down, but for Australia its the busiest week of all in our June 30 reporting season.
Offshore, everyone in the markets will be looking to the speech Friday night, our time by Fed chair, Janet Yellen at the US Federal Reserve’s annual economic policy symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.
The conference runs from Thursday to Saturday and this year has the theme of “Designing Resilient Monetary Policy Frameworks for the Future.” And Ms Yellen’s address on these lines will be watched closely for any sign of a clue as to what the Fed’s current monetary policy stance is.
The AMP’s Chief Economist, Dr Shane Oliver says “The likelihood is that if she does she will reiterate that the process of raising interest rates to more normal levels is likely to remain cautious and gradual but leave the impression that the Fed is on track to raise interest rates again this year.”
The big data release in the US is the second estimate of June quarter GDP out on Friday night, our time. Some economists expect the first reading of 1.2% will be cut to 1.1%.
There’s also the flash survey of manufacturing on Tuesday night, our time; new home sales (also out the same time); existing home sales and home prices (both out Wednesday night, our time), and durable goods orders (Thursday night, our time).
In the Eurozone, business conditions survey results will be released (Tuesday night, our time), the second reading of British second quarter gDP is out early in the week, while an update on german GDP will be released on Friday.
Japanese consumer price data (Friday) is expected to show continued deflation of around -0.4% year on year at a headline level and core inflation of just 0.4% year on year.
In Australia, a quiet week with only the June quarter construction data (on Wednesday) to show continued weakness in mining related investment but strength in dwelling construction. Skilled vacancy data for July will also be released.
The Australian June 30 earnings reporting season will see its biggest week with 87 major companies due to report in the week ahead including Qantas, Wesfarmers, Fortescue, Oil Search, Westfield and Woolworths.
