China moves back to the forefront of global financial and business events this week with the usual flow of monthly economic data for July.
Elsewhere it’s a slower week in the US, Australia and Europe after the hectic past couple of weeks, although the Reserve Bank of NZ will cut its cash rate this Thursday to a record low of 2%.
The Bank of India’s decision on its key rates is out tomorrow, but a rate cut is not expected at this stage.
For China, the data releases start later today with the monthly trade figures – with all eyes on the level of imports which are again expected to fall. For Australia, imports of iron ore, coal and LNG will be of vital interest.
Tomorrow sees the July inflation report from China with a further improvement in producer price deflation expected, along with a fall in consumer price inflation to 1.7% year on year .
Friday sees the release of July’s retail sales (of around 10.6% year on year – yoy) and industrial production (around 6.2% yoy) but a further slowing in fixed asset investment (including property investment). Car sales figures and bank lending figures are also out this week as well.
In the US the focus is likely to be on July retail sales (Friday) which are likely to show continued reasonable growth. Data will also be released on small business confidence, productivity, job openings and hiring and producer prices.
Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump will to try and regain his footing tonight when he plans to deliver a speech on economic policy to the Detroit Economic Club. He announced a team of business and economic advisers on Friday including two hedge fund investors.
US second quarter earnings season begins to wind down and attention shifts to results from department stores and clothing retailers. Ralph Lauren, Macy’s, Nordstrom, Kohl’s and Michael Kors are among the companies slated to report this week. These results will go well with the July data on retail sales.
In Australia, the NAB business survey for July is out tomorrow and should show business conditions and confidence holding up reasonably well. Wednesday sees the monthly consumer confidence report from Westpac and the Melbourne Institute.
Housing finance data for June (on Wednesday) is expected to bounce back as the May rate cut feeds through. Lending finance figures are out on Friday.
And the speech by RBA Governor Glen Stevens on Wednesday will be his last as RBA Governor (he retires on September 17). He is expected to be ruminative in the address which is to a Sydney charity he has supported for years.
And the Australian June 30 profit reporting season will also start to ramp up with 23 major companies reporting including News Corp, CBA, Fairfax and Telstra.
Updated second quarter GDP results will be released in the UK and eurozone, including a national breakdown.
