A week of data dumps around the world as major figures are released in Australia on economic growth, US jobs, the European Central Bank meets on Thursday night, there’s also an OPEC meeting Thursday night, our time, and the usual start of month surveys of manufacturing and services.
On top of that the end of month data from Japan will be released to go with last Friday’s weekly inflation report which confirmed nothing much has changed in the world’s third biggest economy.
Looking first at Australia and the March quarter national accounts and their GDP data will dominate the week. They will be released on Wednesday and if it is a solid report, the data will be leapt on by the government, or ignored if it is a weak.
Judging by market forecasts it will be somewhere in between, with analysts looking for a quarter on quarter rise of 0.7% for a 2.7% annual rate for the year to the end of March. That will be around the 0.6% and 3% rate in the December quarter for 2015.
Some economists warn we should watch for revisions to 2015 data as more accurate figures on commodity prices are reported.
In the run up to the Wednesday report we will get the quarterly data on business stocks, wages and salaries later today and tomorrow the March quarter current account and government finance figures will be issued. They could change the size of the GDP figure in the national accounts.
The AMP’s chief economist, Dr Shane Oliver says GDP growth will be driven, as it has for much of the past year or so, by “consumer spending, housing investment and net exports but constrained by falling capex".
Other data releases include the April data for new home sales (out this morning) and building approvals (Tuesday), credit growth from the Reserve Bank tomorrow, retail sales on Thursday and trade as well.
The latest international travel data for April will be issued on Friday. As well the monthly surveys of manufacturing and services will be issued from Wednesday onwards.
So far as local earnings are concerned, the major release will be from Brisbane-based testing group ALS later today.
But so far as the global economy is concerned, the major data release this week will be the US May jobs and employment figures on Friday night, our time.
Interestingly US economists have hauled back on their estimates of the number of new jobs created after the weaker than expected March report.
Instead of the usuall estimate of around 200,000 new jobs, they now see a figure around 160,000, the same as in March.
But several economists cautioned that a strike by Verizon Communications workers may have confused the numbers (US strikers go on to the list of unemployed right away).
That won’t change the Fed’s thinking as to the timing of the next rate rise. The markets expect to see a rise either in May or July.
The US economic calendar this week also include consumer spending and income figures for April tomorrow night, as well as the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, the personal consumption expenditures price index, also tomorrow night, our time.
The monthly survey of US house prices for April is also out tomorrow night, with car sales data for May on Wednesday and the trade balance for April on Friday.
The US profit reporting season is almost at an end with this week seeing a couple of minor companies releasing figures such as Michael Kors the luxury products group, Navistar International the truck company and mining products producer Joy Global.
Globally, VW and Audi report and will be among the major releases, while the Canadian Bank of Nova Scotia is also due to release quarterly earnings.
Thursday’s Opec meeting in Vienna is not expected to see anything significant emerge, especially on production limits. There will no doubt be a lot of talk and sniping between the Saudis and Iran, but that will be about all.
The rest of the world will be watching to see what type of policy the new administration in Saudi Arabia’s oil sector brings to Friday’s discussion. So far it seems to be a much tougher, hard-line approach to pushing Saudi interests before Opec’s. Thursday also sees the European Central Bank meeting and economists do not expect to see any policy changes.
But the commentary after the meeting will be closely examined, especially given the most recent data have indicated the eurozone fell back into mild deflation in April.
That was put down to weak energy prices, but given the amount of stimulus provided in the past three years, it was a bit of a setback for the central bank.
The ECB will have the latest inflation and employment figures for May available at Thursday’s meetings.
Both sets of figures will be issued tomorrow night, our time, and any improvement in the inflation reading will be welcome, especially if it is a reversal of the weak reading for April.
In Asia Japan sees figures on retail sales (today), jobs, household spending and industrial production released (all tomorrow). Economists expect the jobs data to be solid and the others to be weak. As well the usual start of month reports on the health of manufacturing will be out on Wednesday, with the service sector reports out Friday. The readings for the reports from Japan, South Korea and Taiwan will all be soft.
The most watched reports though will be the two released for Chinese manufacturing on Wednesday.
The AMP’s Dr Oliver says the "Chinese manufacturing conditions PMIs for May are expected to slip slightly from April levels. So the message out of China is likely to remain one of continued growth around the 6.5 to 7% level. No bust but not growth acceleration either. "
