So did China export millions of new iPhone 6 models in August ahead of the launch tomorrow morning, our time, of the new Apple phone, and in doing so propel the country’s monthly trade surplus to more than $US49 billion?
That was higher than the $US47 billion in July and has pushed the country’s trade surplus for the first eight months of the year to a massive $US200 billion.
China’s exports in August rose 9.4% year-on-year to a record $US208.5 billion, while imports fell (thanks to lower volumes and especially lower prices) fell 2.4% to $US158.6 billion.
Exports to the expanding US rose 11.4% in August from a year earlier (and down from the 12.3% rise in July), while shipments to the sluggish European Union jumped 12.1%, according, the country’s statistics bureau.
That was down from the 17% jump seen in July.
Imports from the US fell 3.1%, while imports from Europe fell 4.5% to a 14 month low.
While China’s January to August exports were up 3.8% from year earlier, year to date imports were up 0.6%, hence the huge surplus of $US2090 billion.
Seasonally adjusted, August imports were up 1.7% from a year ago, while seasonally adjusted exports were up 12.3% year on year.
Last week in a note Bank of America analysts reckoned the iPhone would boost Chinese imports by 1% a month between now and the end of the year.
This no small impact – in the last three months of 2013, the company sold more than 51 million iPhone fives and other models.
Want to know why there was a ‘surprise’ fall in Chinese imports in August, well falling import volumes in some cases (especially iron ore, coal and soybeans) and falling prices (especially for iron ore, coal and soybeans, again).
Oil imports rose, despite a fall in prices last month.
Import data in the August trade report show that China imported 74.88 million tonnes of iron ore in August, down 9.3% from July, but up from just over 69 million tonnes imported in August of last year.
The August figure was also well under the 86 million tonnes of imports in January (which we boosted by extras shipments ahead of the Lunar New Year break).
The fall in iron ore shipments came as steel mills cut production in late August, as they start running down stocks of ore ahead of the northern autumn and winter.
Iron ore prices fell 8% in August, so the combination of lower volumes and prices cut the cost to Chinese steel mills (which will help the meagre profit margins).
China’s coal imports fell 18.1% from a month ago to 18.86 million tonnes in August from July, soybean imports also tumbled 19% percent to 6.03 million tonnes, the customs office said. That was also down on the 6.37 million tonnes imported a year ago.
China’s coal consumption has been hit by a combination of slower economic growth, increased hydropower output and the government’s attempts to cut pollution by forcing older power stations, steel works and cement plants to close. That has helped push thermal coal to a six-year low.
China imported 25.19 million tonnes of crude oil in August, up 6% from the previous month and 17.5% from a year ago.
Imports of copper finally steadied after three consecutive months of decline to reach 340,000 tonnes in August, unchanged from July. In August of last year, copper imports hit 387,564 tonnes, (which were down sharply from July).
