Despite a post New Year burst of gloom about retailing, online shopping and employment, the reality is that the Australian economy has remained where it was in December, doing a bit better than many media reports suggest, and doing poorly as the same media reports suggest.
In other words, no change on 2011.
As noted yesterday, the Australian dollar’s strength was the most remarkable happening over the holidays and it remains the great destabilising force for the economy and investors in the coming year.
Retail sales in November were flat because of the continuing weakness in department stores, clothing and footwear, and in retailing in Victoria which saw a 1.1% fall in sales in the month.
But car sales in November were solid and even better in December, housing approvals perked up in November because of the first rate cut by the RBA and yesterday we saw home loan approvals surprise some economists with a solid rise.
However job ads were again weak in December, according to the monthly survey from the ANZ.
Home loans rose 1.4% in November after rising 0.8% in October, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics.
Economists had been expecting a 1% gain in November and the improvement came on a sharp rise in loans to investors which were up 1.8% after a 5% slump in October.
The total number of mortgages approved in November rose to 46,953, the highest for more than a year.
The ABS said that total housing finance by value rose 2.1% in November, seasonally adjusted, to $20.344 billion.
The ABS said the number of first home buyer commitments as a percentage of total owner-occupied housing finance commitments rose to 20% in November 2011 from 19.1% in October 2011.
Encouragingly, the number of home loans approved for owner-occupied housing (excluding refinancings) rose 2.5% in November 2011.
Home loans for owner-occupied properties rose 4.2% in NSW, fell 0.2% in Victoria, and were up 0.9% in both Queensland and WA.
In South Australia they fell 0.3%, while in the Northern Territory they were down 0.6%, but up 3.9% in Tasmania (which is a very small market).
The ANZ said job ads fell 0.9% in December, after a flat reading in November, to be down 2.6% from December 2010, the first fall in the yearly comparison for more than 12 months.
Internet jobs fell 1.1% in December, or 2.3% for the year, a significant move as more than 90% of all ads are now found online.
But newspaper jobs, which comprise a smaller share of the total, rose 3.5% in December, the second successive monthly rise.
All of December’s fall came in job ads on the internet which fell to 171,752, from the month before. Ads in metropolitan newspapers rose to 8,218.
“This, the second consecutive monthly rise in newspaper job advertising, needs to be watched closely, as newspaper job advertising often leads developments in overall job advertising and therefore employment growth,” said ANZ head of Australian economics Katie Dean said in a statement.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics will release official December’s labour force report on Thursday with economists tipping the jobless rate will remain unchanged at 5.3%.
Market forecasts are for the loss of around 40,000 full-time jobs for the month with an increase of 33,600 part-time roles helping to limit the loss in overall employment numbers.
The ANZ forecasts the unemployment rate to rise to 5.4% in December, with overall employment to drop by 2,000.
