A big big week for the global economy, as well as the economies of Australia, the US, UK and Europe.
The Reserve Bank, the US Fed, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England are all meeting tis week and the outcomes are widely awaited.
As well, the usual monthly surveys of manufacturing activity are due for release tomorrow.
Attention will focused on China, where there was a surprise move back into expansion in the first result from the HSBC survey, Europe, where a composite survey for August showed a dip closer to slowdown and the US where there seems to be renewed hope the economy is recovering.
The European situation continues and there are more signs last week’s deal is not good enough.
Italy for example paid a record 6.9% to borrow money on Friday and yields on Spain’s rose as well.
Leaders of the world’s major economies will convene at the Group of 20 summit on Thursday and Friday in Cannes, France.
For Australia Tuesday dominates the week with the RBA board meeting, and the Melbourne Cup.
Before that however we have the Qantas dispute and the market reaction later today to the airline’s decision to ground all Qantas domestic and international planes.
Planes run by the regional arm, Qantaslink and Jetstar are still flying.
Besides the board meeting tomorrow, the RBA has its 4th Statement of Monetary Policy for the year that will be issued on Friday morning, complete with updated forecasts.
A rate cut is widely anticipated from the RBA, and the deal on Europe last week would have removed one area of major concern (for the time being) from the bank’s deliberations.
The AMP’s chief economist, Dr Shane Oliver says he expected the central bank to cut rates by 0.25% to 4.50%, reversing last November’s increase.
The RBA will also release its last Statement on Monetary Policy on Friday.
The performance of manufacturing survey is out tomorrow (for October) and the survey of the services sector is out on Thursday.
Dr Oliver says he expects the report to show downwards revision to underlying inflation forecasts from around 3% to around 2.5%.
Any changes to the growth forecast for the next 1 to 2 years will also be examined by analysts.
Australian car industry sales figures later in the week.
We also get the RP Data-Rismark house price index for September later today, as well as the TD Securities/Melbourne Institute inflation gauge for October.
Private credit data and the commodity price index for October from the RBA today and tomorrow respectively.
Retail sales and building approvals, all for September, will be released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, and we will also get the house price index for the September quarter.
Dr Oliver says we can "expect private credit growth data (Monday) to remain soft, ABS September quarter house price data (Tuesday) to show a 1.5% fall, and soft outcomes for building approvals (Wednesday) and retail sales (Thursday) after strong gains in both in August."
And we will also get full year profits from Westpac (Wednesday) and the ANZ (Thursday). BT Investment Management full year results are due out later today. It’s 60% owned by Westpac.
Both banks will be watched by investors to see how close they come to the NAB’s 19% improvement revealed last week.
The 2011 AGM season continues this week with voting on remuneration reports again the focus after last week’s rejections at the Pac Brands and Crown AGMs.
Boral, Extract Resources, Perpetual lead the group.
Others include DEXUS Property Group, Novogen Ltd, FSA Group Ltd, Agenix Ltd, Aspermont Ltd, Bass Metals Ltd, Cleveland Mining Company Ltd, Papillon Resources Ltd, Segue Resources Ltd, Tasman Resources Ltd, Dominos Pizza Enterprises Ltd, RedFlow Ltd, Transpacific Industries Group, HealthLinx Ltd, Coventry Group Ltd, Pharmanet Group Ltd, Webster Ltd Sydney, Platinum Asset Management Ltd, Infomedia Ltd, Hastie Group Ltd, PrimeAg Australia Ltd, RCR Tomlinson Ltd, Scott Corporation Ltd, Country Road Ltd, Helix Resources Ltd, Macmahon Holdings Ltd, Little World Beverages Ltd, Chandler Macleod Group Ltd, IMF (Australia) Ltd, CBio Ltd, Hills Holdings Ltd, Orion Equities Ltd, Paynes Find Gold Ltd, Red Emperor Resources NL.
In the USwe have the October jobs report on Friday and the Fed meeting tomorrow and Wednesday nights our time.
The jobs report is the most important figures because unemployment is the country’s biggest concern.
The AMP’s Dr Oliver says "October employment due Friday is expected to show a 100,000 gain but with unemployment remaining at 9.1%."
The Fed is likely to do nothing at its two day meeting because of the better quality data on the economy, including the 2.5% first estimate for third quarter growth which was released on Friday night, our time.
That growth rate (around 0.6% quarter on quarter), while better than the 1.3% rise in the second quarter, is nowhere near high enough to start making a dent in the huge pool of unemployed people in the US.
US car sales for October will be released and analysts are looking for a continuation of the strong sales seen over the past few months which helped boost retail sales, consumer spending and growth in the third quarter.
The the ISM Manufacturing survey will be out tomorrow night and the Fed will have that fresh report to incorporate in its discussions.
Manufacturing in October is expected to expand for the 26th straight month on strong production growth, according to economists at Moody’s Analytics, quote don Marketwatch.com.
The US third quarter ear
