The Economy: Home Loans Up, Consumer Confidence Edges Higher

Like business confidence and trading conditions, consumer confidence is recovering from the mid-year lows, while the housing and jobs markets seem to be a little firmer.

We will get the latest jobs figures later today for last month, but the federal government’s leading employment index rose in October, ending five consecutive months of decline.

Yesterday we had the Westpac/Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment survey for September, and it showed a small rise to 97.2 last month from 96.9 in August.

Westpac said the index was still down 16.9% on October last year and 6.8% below the average for the first half of 2011.

It said the index was consistent with the Australian consumer remaining pessimistic.

Westpac chief economist Bill Evans said the steady result likely reflected the flow of mixed news recently, with global markets remaining very volatile but fears of a domestic rate rise diminishing.

The Reserve Bank of Australia may have helped sentiment last week when it flagged the possibility that a less threatening outlook for inflation might provide scope for rates to be cut to support demand, if necessary.

The index reflecting economic conditions for the next 12 months nudged up 0.9% in October, after a 16.6% surge in September, while that for the next five years rose 4.1%.

The index measuring family finances compared to a year ago firmed to 2.3%, while that for family finances over the coming 12 months increased by 3%.

The only decline came in the measure of whether it was a good time to buy major household items, which fell 5.6%.

Overall, the survey’s expectations index rose 2.7% to 93.4, while its index of current conditions dipped 2.6% to 103.0.

Housing finance data from the ABS released yesterday showed another monthly rise.

The number of home loans approved in August rose 1.2% to 50,965, a bit better than the 1% forecast from the market.

Excluding alterations and additions, there was a 1% rise in the value of pure home loans in the month.

August was the fifth straight month that housing finance commitments had risen.

The number of home loans rose 1.9% in July and are now up 6.2% in the year to August.

Loans for newly built homes jumped 6% in August, loans for established homes were up 1% and loans for construction were up 0.8 %.

By value, investor loans rose 1.8% to be 2% over the year, which is what RBA lending data has been telling us.

"In seasonally adjusted terms, the number of commitments for owner occupied housing finance rose 1.2%,” the ABS said.

"The seasonally adjusted estimates rose in all states and territories except the Australian Capital Territory (down 99, 9.6%), South Australia (down 78, 2.1%) and Tasmania (down 5, 0.6%).

"In original terms, the number of first home buyer commitments as a percentage of total owner occupied housing finance commitments rose to 15.3% in August 2011 from 14.9% in July 2011," the ABS said.

Meanwhile shareholders in the country’s biggest electronics retailer JB Hi-Fi were told yesterday that trading conditions were "challenging" (there’s that word again) in the first quarter.

While headline sales were up 6.9% on a year earlier, same store (or comparable store sales) were down 3.5%, a trend that the company alluded to when releasing the full year figures back in August.

Yesterday’s AGM was told by CEO Terry Smart that the weak sales growth was made to look weaker than it was because of major product releases last year which helped boost sales at that time.

He said the launch of the new Apple iPhone 4, music, games and other product launches would support sales this quarter.

Mr Smart said the group was still optimistic the Christmas trading period would be successful.

By Christmas, JB Hi-Fi expects to have opened 10 new outlets, taking the total store network to 162.

The company has plans to open 16 new JB Hi-Fi stores for financial 2012, a target outlined in August.

The shares jumped 49c to $14.36 after touching a low of $13.41 in early trading.

Most of the 95c rebound came after the AGM.

And discount retailer, The Reject Shop also said yesterday that sales were weak at the moment.

The AGM was told in Melbourne yesterday that the negative growth of the June half year had continued into the current half.

About Glenn Dyer

Glenn Dyer has been a finance journalist and TV producer for more than 40 years. He has worked at Maxwell Newton Publications, Queensland Newspapers, AAP, The Australian Financial Review, The Nine Network and Crikey.

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