DIARY: German Vote, US GDP, China Data To Test Markets

By Glenn Dyer | More Articles by Glenn Dyer

We are stuck for choice this week for the next triggers of another round of market nervousness and selling.

The two most important are on Thursday in Europe and the US.

In Europe the German Parliament votes on the expansion of the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) and that will come the same day as the third estimate of US second quarter economic growth.

Votes could be held in a number of other eurozone countries over the next week or so, but Germany’s vote will be the most important.

It could make or break the eurozone.

Poor reports for US GDP and either a no vote (certainly) or a close vote in Germany, could see another bout of selling, so negative is investor sentiment at the moment.

Also in Europe, second quarter gross domestic product data is due in the UK, along with total business investment figures for the quarter. 

German unemployment for September is out at the end of the week.

In the US, the GDP report isn’t the only important bit of economic data.

Other US data releases include include new and pending home sales for August; July house prices (Tuesday) September consumer confidence (US Conference Board, on Tuesday); August durable goods orders (Wednesday) and personal spending for August (Friday). 

The second and final consumer confidence survey for September from the University of Michigan is due on Friday.

The June quarter GDP growth (Thursday) to be revised up to 1.2% from the 1% annual rate of the second estimate.

Profit reports are sparse, with the Accenture consulting group one of the companies reporting.

In Asia, the two surveys of Chinese manufacturing could be released on Friday and Saturday.

The private HSBC/Markit survey is due for release Friday afternoon, so the Chinese government survey will probably be released the same day.

The so-called flash report from HSBC/Markit last week triggered a lot of selling in commodities, even though it showed no change from three months ago!

And the current slight contractionary level is still consistent with the Chinese economy growing by 8.5% to 9% a year.

In Japan data for household spending, industrial production, employment and inflation will all be released on Thursday (retail sales) and Friday with unemployment and industrial production dominating.

In Australia, expect data for new home sales (Wednesday), job vacancies (Thursday), house prices (Friday) and private credit (Friday) to remain weak.

First quarter population growth data is also due from the ABS.

In corporate news Nufarm reports earnings, while BHP Billiton is due to pay its final dividend.

Full-year results from Paladin Energy and Sundance Resources are also expected late in the week.  

Company meetings in Australia will include Gulf Resources, UXA Resources Ltd , Lachlan Star Ltd, Bass Metals Ltd, ConnectEast Management Ltd, Air New Zealand Ltd (Auckland), RKS Consolidated Ltd, Macro Corporation Ltd, Tidewater Investments Ltd, AMCIL Ltd,  Gage Roads Brewing Co Ltd, Marengo Mining Ltd, RedFlow Ltd and Adelaide Energy Ltd.

About Glenn Dyer

Glenn Dyer has been a finance journalist and TV producer for more than 40 years. He has worked at Maxwell Newton Publications, Queensland Newspapers, AAP, The Australian Financial Review, The Nine Network and Crikey.

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