The Economy: Trade, Finance OK

By Glenn Dyer | More Articles by Glenn Dyer

More evidence yesterday that the economy isn’t a straitjacket or under pressure.

Figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed the trade surplus was again very solid in July, the first month of the 2012 financial year.

And other figures from the ABS showed that lending finance was a touch stronger in July, though it remains weak.

The news from the ABS was at considerable variance to the performance of the local stockmarket which dropped sharply yesterday, destroying a reported $45 billion in value. 

Driving the plunge were fears about Europe and the euro.

But from the ABS, no such worries for Australia.

The trade surplus was $1.826 billion in July, seasonally adjusted, compared with a downwardly revised surplus of $1.817 billion in June ($1.940 billion originally).

Economists’ forecasts had centred on a surplus of $1.9 billion in the month, so the market was just about spot on.

During July, exports fell 1%, thanks to weaker coal exports, Imports were also down around 1% in the month.

Exports fell $224 million to $26.102 billion while imports dropped $232 million to $24.276 billion.

The ABS said exports of non-rural goods fell $724 million (or 4%) and rural goods fell $41 million (or 1%).

Non-monetary gold is a volatile part of trade account and July’s figures once again confirmed this.

The ABS said they jumped by 82% or $596 million to $1.322 billion, after falling $894 million or 55% in June.

The ABS said that on a recorded trade basis, non-monetary gold exports rose $581 million or 84%, thanks to an increase in exports to the United Kingdom, up $524 million, on higher volumes. In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of non-monetary gold rose $153 million or 39% to $543 million.

On the import side (besides non-monetary gold), intermediate and other merchandise goods fell $513 million or 6% , while consumption goods rose $166 million or 3%, capital goods rose $135 million and services debits fell $174 million (3%).

The ABS said that exports of hard coking coal fell $278 million or 14% in the month with shipments to India down 37% or $241 million, on a 27% fall in volumes.

Shipments of semi-soft coking coal fell $277 million (32%) with exports to Japan down $69 million (23%), with volumes down 26% and Republic of Korea down $60 million (33%) with volumes down 31%.

Business lending rose in July, according to the ABS. 

Total commercial finance rose 6.1% in July, seasonally adjusted, to $31.857 billion, up from $30.026 billion in June.

Total personal finance commitments rose 0.5% in July, seasonally adjusted, to $7.009 billion, up from $6.972 billion in June, according to the ABS yesterday.

Lease finance was up 3.4% in July to $388 million, compared with $375 million the month before.

Housing finance for owner occupation rose 1.4% to $14.370 billion in July, from $14.171 billion in June.

Later today we get the NAB’s monthly survey of business confidence and conditions.

About Glenn Dyer

Glenn Dyer has been a finance journalist and TV producer for more than 40 years. He has worked at Maxwell Newton Publications, Queensland Newspapers, AAP, The Australian Financial Review, The Nine Network and Crikey.

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