The softness in the Australian labour market was underlined by yesterday’s ANZ job ads survey for June.
Ads for last month rose 3.7% compared with the 6.5 % drop in June and half a per cent in May.
So the June rise recovered little more than half the 7.1% fall over the previous two months.
Newspaper advertisements fell 4.9% in June to 8345, 1% lower than a year ago, while online ads rose 4.2% to 180,167 ads, or 11% above June of last year.
Total job ads are now 9.8% higher than a year ago, but newspaper advertising is down 11%, with internet ads up 11%.
But here’s a reality check from June 2008’s survey from the ANZ:
The total number of jobs advertised in major metropolitan newspapers and on the internet in June 2008 was 262,705 per week.
Newspaper ads totalled 16,593 and internet ads were 246,112.
And in June 2009, 127,346 jobs were advertised weekly on the internet and in newspapers.
The number of job ads in major metropolitan newspapers increased averaged 8,192 per week, while the number of job ads on the net was 119,154 a week.
So looking at the depths of the GC in 2008 and especially 2009, internet ads are not back to their levels of three years ago, while newspaper ads have almost halved.
No wonder Fairfax Media and APN news and Media have suffered.
News Corp’s Australian papers are in a similar position.
Looking at 2011, the ANZ said that it was expecting a bigger bounce in June, given the expected effect of the extended Easter-Anzac Day long weekend on the May figures.
"This disappointing result suggests the drop in advertising in May is reflective of weaker economic conditions in the non-mining sectors of the economy, rather than just the effects of the extended Easter/Anzac Day long weekend," the report said.
"Anecdotal evidence from ANZ’s business customers is beginning to indicate more limited hiring intentions due to mixed economic conditions."
The bank says this means it does not expect the Reserve Bank to raise interest rates until next year.
"Declining trends in job advertising historically have not been consistent with rising interest rates (and in fact usually foreshadow lower interest rates)," it noted.
ANZ currently expects another interest rate rise from February next year onwards.
But it also said that further weak job numbers could lead the Reserve Bank to leave rates where they are.
The ANZ had a warning about the ad series, especially newspapers.
"Newspaper advertising continues to experience structural change with the shift of advertising towards online. This makes interpretation of the state-based newspaper trends difficult.
"The more mature online advertising markets (NSW and Victoria) have experienced weaker newspaper advertising in recent months and a plateauing of online advertising.
"Given their combined size, these markets still dominate overall trends in the Australian labour market and suggest further moderation in employment growth in the months ahead."
The ANZ said it expects to see 12,000 new jobs in Thursday’s June labour force data, with an unchanged unemployment rate of 4.9%.
