China 2: Trade Surplus Down As Imports Hit Record

By Glenn Dyer | More Articles by Glenn Dyer

China has produced another big trade surplus in September of $US16.9 billion, but it was at least down on the $US20 billion recorded for August.

The figure was lower than market forecasts and came on a 25.1% jump in exports and a 24.1% rise in imports in the month.

That was a lot lower than August when exports rose 34.4% year-on-year to $US139.3 billion, and imports climbed 35.2% to $US119.27 billion.

But it was still too high for China’s critics in the US and Europe.

The September outcomes for exports and imports were also under market forecasts.

Imports rose to a record $US128.1 billion, helping cut the trade surplus to the smallest in five months.

Exports were $US145 billion.

The quarterly trade surplus was $US65.6 billion and the very sensitive trade gap with the US was $US18 billion last month, unchanged from August.

For the year so far to September, China’s trade surplus was $US120.6 billion, down 10.5% from the first nine months of 2009.

China’s economy avoided the full impact of the global recession, and has been growing strongly now for well over a year, thanks to the huge $US586 billion stimulus package announced in late 2008.

The  Shanghai Composite Index now up 20%, or in a bull market phase, after slumping from late 2009 until July of this year.

But it is still down for the year so far on 2009.

Third quarter data will be released next week on October 21.

They are expected to show another solid quarter of growth.

But growth is expected to slow to about 9.5% in the July-September quarter from 10.3% the previous quarter and almost 12% in the March quarter.

And in another sign the Chinese economy continues to be solid, car sales rose 17% in September, down a fraction from the 18% rise in August, but enough to trigger an upgrade in the 2010 full year forecast to a record 17 million units.

The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) said September saw a 16.89% rise in sales from the same month in 2009 and a 24.7% rise from August to 1.56 million units.

Car production for September jumped nearly 17% to 1.59 million units.

In the first nine months of this year, Chinese car production reached 13.08 million units, up 36.1% from a year ago.

A total of 13.14 million units of domestically-made vehicles were sold in China in the same period, up 35.97% year on year.

The Association says China’s annual production and sales of new autos is now very likely to top 17 million units this year, matching the highest annual level ever reached in the US.

American reporters tried to report this as a slowdown. Far from it.

Passenger car sales rose 19.3% to 1.2 million vehicles.

In January-September, China’s total vehicle sales rose 36% to 13.1 million units, while passenger car sales climbed 37% to 9.9 million vehicles.

About Glenn Dyer

Glenn Dyer has been a finance journalist and TV producer for more than 40 years. He has worked at Maxwell Newton Publications, Queensland Newspapers, AAP, The Australian Financial Review, The Nine Network and Crikey.

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