Markets 2: Oil Leads Commodities Higher As US Dollar Weakness

By Glenn Dyer | More Articles by Glenn Dyer

Oil had a last day burst, to a new 8-month high, then fell sharply to close under $US70 a barrel in New York as new doubts emerged about the greenness of those shoots.

Gold ended the month, quarter and the half year with less than stellar gains.

But oil had its biggest quarterly gain since 1990.

Yesterday a weak US dollar  and worries grew about supplies from Nigeria pushed oil up, then worries about the US economy sent it lower.

It was storming end (of sorts) to the quarter and half year (and financial year in Australia).

Oil jumped as much as 2.6% in New York, adding to Monday’s 3.4% rise, as investors sought commodities.

The greenback fell against major currencies on optimism that the world economy is recovering.

Shell shut a field after an attack by Nigerian rebels, disrupting supply from Africa’s largest producer.

It was at $US72.40 a barrel at in Europe overnight and then fell under $US70 a barrel in New York after a set of poor economic figures were released. It ended at $US69.89 a barrel.

Despite the loss, oil rallied 41% in the second quarter, the biggest three-month advance since Saddam’s invasion of Kuwait in the third quarter of 1990.

Crude oil rose 5.4% in June, its fifth consecutive monthly gain. It jumped 57% in the first half of the year.

Oil peaked at $US147.47 a barrel on July 11, 2008 and fell from then on to lows in December, and then January and February.

It rebounded from a low of $US33.98 a barrel on February 12.

Yesterday, China, the world’s second-biggest energy consumer, raised domestic fuel prices by up to 11% to encourage refiners to produce more fuels amid higher crude costs.

Gold provided no joy whatsoever, despite promising much.

New York gold futures for August delivery fell $US13.30, or 1.4% to $US927.40 an ounce on Comex Tuesday.

The most-active contract rose 0.3% for the second quarter, but was down 5.4% for the month.

Gold is up 4.9% so far this year, a sign of how confidence about the financial system has returned, and how those occasional outbursts of concern about inflation, are not really sustainable at the moment..

Comex September copper futures slid 5.4 cents, or 2.3% Tuesday in New York to $US2.272 a pound 

That was the biggest fall in a week (Perhaps China has stopped buying after saying it was planning to do so) 

Copper prices were up 3.4% in June and 23% in the second quarter.

Copper is up 61% so far in 2009 on that Chinese buying and the green shoots argument about recovery in the global economy.

US wheat prices fell 20% in June as signs emerged the winter wheat crop would be bigger than expected. July wheat futures fell 17.25 cents, or 3.3%, to $US5.1125 a bushel in Chicago, on Tuesday.

US Bonds were down around 4%, according to an index from Merrill Lynch, compared to a 14% rise last year (concentrated in the final quarter) after Lehman Brothers fell over, other banks quaked, economies trembled and investors fled for cash and their close equivalents, US bonds. 

The Australian dollar ended at 81.14 US cents (with the Trade Weighted Index at 64.7%. That compares with 96.26 on June 30 2008 and a TWI of 73.4. That’s a fall of 15.7% against the Us dollar.

Over the first half of the year the dollar has risen from 69.28 (and a TWI of 55.6%) on December 30, and over the June quarter, up from 69.73 US cents, and 57.4 on March 30.

The dollar’s low was around 63.20 US cents in early February and the high was just over 82 US cents in May.

About Glenn Dyer

Glenn Dyer has been a finance journalist and TV producer for more than 40 years. He has worked at Maxwell Newton Publications, Queensland Newspapers, AAP, The Australian Financial Review, The Nine Network and Crikey.

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