Markets, Commodities Mixed On New Debt Fears

By Glenn Dyer | More Articles by Glenn Dyer

It won't be the most confident of starts today for markets, although rises Friday night in the prices of lead, copper, wheat, sugar and oil will help offset an easier tone from US and worries in Europe about corporate debt defaults.

US stocks retreated, sending the market to its first weekly decline since mid-January, as concern that corporate defaults will increase outweighed gains in technology companies and commodities producers.

The S&P 500 dropped 4.6% to 1,331.29 last, bringing its decline this year to 9.3%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 4.4% to 12,182.13 and the year-to-date fall to 8.2%. Nasdaq fell 4.5% to 2,304.85 and the year drop is now 13.1%.

The S&P 500 broke two weeks of gains.

The index is now 15% under since its October 9 record, while the Dow has fallen 14% from its all-time high the same day. The Nasdaq has slumped 19% since an almost-seven year peak on October 31.

European stocks gained, trimming their fifth weekly decline of 2008, after commodity prices rose with oil and metal prices.

The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index gained 0.4% leaving it with a 3.9% drop this week. The regional benchmark has fallen 13% this year because of worries about the impact of a US economic slowdown and the credit-market turmoil will curb hurt the European economy.

The Stoxx 50 added 0.5% and the Euro Stoxx 50, a measure for the companies in the euro zone, edged up 0.1%.

Asian stocks fell for a sixth week, extending their longest losing streak in more than three years.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped 3%, increasing this year's loss to 11%, the worst start to a year in 20 years. Seven of the region's main markets, including China, Hong Kong, Singapore and South Korea, were closed at least two days for Lunar New Year holidays, so the trading was patchy.

Australia's ASX/200 Index fell 3.3% last week, while Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Average slipped 3.6% to 13,017.24. South Korea, Malaysia and China were the main Asian markets to rise in holiday interrupted dealings.

Australian shares rose Friday after falling for three days.

The S&P/ASX 200 Index climbed 61.30, or 1.1%, to 5,658 on Friday, taking the week's loss to 3.3% while the All Ordinaries Index rose 1% to 5,723.90 to be down 3% over the week.

Wesfarmers added $1.83, or 4.9% to $39.03. The company hired Ian McLeod, a former executive with Wal-Mart's Asda supermarket group, to run Coles in Australia. Wesfarmers is due to report its interim results later this week.

Commonwealth Bank rose $1.32, or 2.7% to $50.14. St George Bank jumped 95c, or 3.5%, to $27.99 and the National Australia Bank added 63c to $33.43. The ANZ finished up 60c to $25.60.

However, the big miners were weaker as investors digested BHP Billiton's 3.4 shares for every one $US147.40 billion ($165 billion) bid for rival Rio.

BHP shed closed 78c to finish at $36.14 and Rio lost $2.00 to $125.00.

At BHP's new rate, Rio shares are valued at $122.76, still a long way under the actual price.

In the US late worries about bank and corporate debts and losses saw the banks and brokerages sub index of the S&P 500 fall 8.6% last week, the biggest weekly loss since September 11 2001.

Traders said this reflected how the credit crunch seemed to be intensifying.

The cost of insuring various forms of corporate debt against default using derivatives rose to record levels.

Traders say driving the fears is speculation that banks sitting on $US160 billion of unsold leveraged loans may have to write down more losses after a plunge in the value of the debt.

Estimates in London from banking analysts reckon there could be another $US20 billion of losses from these loans: that will be on top of billions more in write downs from subprime mortgages and associated securities with rating agencies reviewing their grading of these securities. And corporate debt is also under the microscope.

The world's largest banks and brokerage firms have written down the value of debt and related products on their books by $US146 billion since the beginning of 2007, according to Bloomberg.

But billions of dollars more have been lost by the likes of Countrywide Financial Services, Washington Mutual and a host of other lenders who have either failed, cut back or left the industry.

The AMP's chief strategist, Dr Shane Oliver says "Investors should remain cautious over the few months or so. Notwithstanding the occasional bounce, concerns over the US economy, further credit and bank losses flowing from the US mortgage meltdown and falling expectations for future profit growth will keep shares under pressure in the months ahead. Further falls to new lows are likely.

"However, shares provide great opportunities for returns on a 12 month view.

"Valuations are very attractive with shares trading on very low price to earnings multiples, the global monetary backdrop is becoming extremely stimulatory thanks to the Fed's quick action and investor sentiment is becoming extremely bearish which is normally positive from a contrarian perspective. As a result the next few months will provide very attractive buying opportunities.

"Bond yields may be pushed even lower in the short term as global growth slows.

"However, on a one year perspective global bonds now offer very poor returns reflecting their already very low yields. Australian bonds are better value.

"The $A is likely to be stuck in a range over the next six months between $US0.85 and just above $US0.90. Worries about global growth and softening commodity prices will be counterbalanced by the ever widening interest rate differential in Australia's favour. The gap between Australian and US interest rates is now 4%."

March Comex copper futures rose 8.55 USc, or 2.5% to $US3.53.95 a pound in New

About Glenn Dyer

Glenn Dyer has been a finance journalist and TV producer for more than 40 years. He has worked at Maxwell Newton Publications, Queensland Newspapers, AAP, The Australian Financial Review, The Nine Network and Crikey.

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