Jobs Growth Continues

By Glenn Dyer | More Articles by Glenn Dyer

Australian employment rose for a 14th successive month in December.

As we remarked yesterday morning, the rise in employment was the direct opposite to the gloomy sentiment that seems to be affecting consumers, thanks to the 14% fall in the stockmarket and the gloomy news from the US.

The number of people employed climbed by 20,100 following a revised 47,600 gain in November (down 5,000 from the original November figure), the Australian Bureau of Statistics said in its monthly labour force series released yesterday.

The jobless rate fell to 4.3% from 4.5% and is only just above the 33-year low of 4.2% recorded in September 2007.

But the boom wasn't across the entire country: employment improved in NSW, Victoria, Queensland and WA, but eased in Tasmania, South Australia and the Northern Territory.

The seasonally adjusted rise – which included 6,300 full-time jobs – compared with market expectations for a 20,000 increase.

Economists say there is a risk that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will raise official interest rates again when its board meets on February 5. The US Fed will have cut its key rate by half a per cent by then.

Crucial to its decision will be the outcome of next week's consumer price index for the fourth quarter.

Some economists had expected more full time jobs to have been created in the month than part-time, but that wasn't to be.

A total of just over 244,000 jobs were created in calendar 2007 and again, the reality was that far more of these were full time jobs than part time. If you listen to the professional moaners and groaners in the community, more part time jobs are being created, which is somehow bad.

Some 200,000 of the 244,000 were full time jobs filled during the year compared to 44,000 or so part time gigs.

It's the longest run of monthly job gains since 1980 and is being driven by demand for skilled labour at companies in the still booming mining and resources industries, and in the recovering building and construction sectors on the east coast, especially in NSW and Victoria.

The ABS reported that employment increased by 20,100 to 10,602,600.

Full-time employment increased by 6,300 to 7,598,500 and part-time employment increased by 13,800 to 3,004,100. Unemployment fell 24,900 to 473,900.

The number of persons looking for full-time work decreased by 5,500 to 325,100 and the number of persons looking for part-time work decreased by 19,400 to 148,900. The unemployment rate fell 0.2 percentage points to 4.3%. The male unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2%, and the female unemployment rate decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 4.4%.

The jobless rate in NSW fell to 4.7% in December from 4.8% in November.

Victoria saw a fall to 4.7% from 4.9%, while in Queensland it declined to 3.5% from 3.8%.

Western Australia's rate fell to a very tight 3.1% from 3.4%.

But in South Australia it rose to 4.9% from 4.8% and in Tasmania it increased to 5.5% from 5.2%.

Unemployment in the Northern Territory also rose to 5.3% from 5.2% but in the ACT it fell to 2.4% from 2.5%.

Australia's participation rate, which measures the labour force as a percentage of the population aged over 15, fell in December to 65.2% from 65.3%.

Across the Tasman there was no cheer for anyone from inflation figures released yesterday that saw the annual rate leap above the Reserve Bank target to 3.2%.

A rise in the Consumer Price Index from 1.8% in the September quarter had been expected, but the quarterly rise of 1.2% was above the 1% forecast by private sector economists and the Reserve Bank's estimate of 1.1%.

Higher fuel prices played a big part in the rise but higher commodity prices, particularly food, played a significant part with Statistics NZ saying that without petrol price rises, the index would have risen 1% in the quarter.

RBNZ governor Alan Bollard last month forecast inflation would remain above the bank's target band all this year.

Westpac chief economist Brendan O'Donovan believes the bank will have to hike interest rates twice more this year to contain second round inflation effects arising from higher fuel prices.

One of the major factors fuelling inflation over the past 18 months, the wealth effect flowing from rising house prices, has eased. On Wednesday, Real Estate Institute (REINZ) figures showed the median house price fell 2% in December and sales fell by a third.

Rather than rise after the poor CPI (and its adverse implications for another rate rise) the New Zealand dollar continued to fall and is now around 3 USc down from the one-month high touched on Monday.

About Glenn Dyer

Glenn Dyer has been a finance journalist and TV producer for more than 40 years. He has worked at Maxwell Newton Publications, Queensland Newspapers, AAP, The Australian Financial Review, The Nine Network and Crikey.

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