… But Housing Still Solid

By Glenn Dyer | More Articles by Glenn Dyer

And while consumer confidence was dropping and the Federal Government was warning of the dangers of high inflation, it seems Australians' preoccupation with property and especially housing is continuing.

Figures out last week showed solid building approvals, but then other figures showed a two speed property market in Sydney with sharp falls in parts of the west and big rises in the east and north.

But yesterday the Australian Bureau of Statistics released figures showing that the combination of a Federal election campaign and a rate rise didn't stop the number of new home loans being higher-than-expected in the month.

Economists say the figures add to the case for a rate rise next month, but that's just speculation of a rather poorly informed type.

The figures do not show a housing boom out of control, nor do they show any potential of a break out of demand for property.

The ABS said that housing finance commitments for owner-occupied housing rose a seasonally adjusted 4% in November, even though the RBA boosted rates 0.25% to 6.75%.

Economists had expected a rise of just 1%, thus continuing the recent run of major statistics where the market's expectations have been out of alignment (either too optimistic or too conservative) with what is really happening in the marketplace.

By value, housing finance rose just 0.5% in November to $22.295 billion as the value of loans to investors fell 2.8% to $6.739 billion. Owner-occupied housing commitments increased 2.0%, according to the ABS.

The ABS said that in seasonally adjusted terms, the number of commitments for owner occupied housing finance increased by 4.0% and the number excluding refinancing rose by 1.5%.

Westpac economists said in a client note the housing finance data showed the home loan market was proving to be remarkably resilient in the face of rising borrowing costs.

"Brisk income growth is supporting the household sector and there is a shortage of housing stock at a time of strong population growth,'' they said.

"We still see the risk of finance weakening early in 2008.''

The ABS data also showed the number of loan commitments for refinancing rose by 10.6% in November, and by 1.5% excluding refinancing.

"More people were fixing – fixed rate loans represented 24%cent of the total, up from 17% in August,'' Westpac said.

Non-bank lending fell 20% over September and August as the credit crunch bit, but recovered by around 12% in November.

Lending by banks rose 2.4% in November, making the fourth consecutive monthly rise.

All states and territories reported an increase in demand for home loans, expect the ACT, which fell 0.4 per cent in November, the ABS said.

Home loans rose 3.9% in NSW – Australia's largest housing market but Tasmania experienced the biggest surge with a 9.9% increase, followed by Victoria with 4.7% and WA with 4% There was a 3.5% increase in Queensland, 2.8 per% in South Australia and 2.0% in the Northern Territory.

About Glenn Dyer

Glenn Dyer has been a finance journalist and TV producer for more than 40 years. He has worked at Maxwell Newton Publications, Queensland Newspapers, AAP, The Australian Financial Review, The Nine Network and Crikey.

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