Market Very Mixed

By Glenn Dyer | More Articles by Glenn Dyer

Major US market indexes staged a late rally to finish higher Friday, capping a rather volatile week.

The Dow finished 67 points, or 0.5% higher, the S&P 500 index also rose 0.5% while NASDAQ rose 0.7%.

Those small gains helped the S&P 500 and Dow avoid a third straight week of losses.

The Dow rose 1% over the week; while the S&P 500 and NASDAQ each inched 0.4% higher.

In Australia the All Ords lost 1.23% to 6526.1 and the ASX 200 lost a similar amount to close at 6461.9 after both lost 1% on Friday.

The gain in the US on Friday was as much due to technology equipment maker, Cisco boosting its ongoing buyback $US10 billion to a new high of $US62 billion (it's been buying back shares for six years). That helped steady an uncertain NASDAQ and broader market.

Results and forecasts from FedEx and Starbucks provided the concerns, as well as the fall in industrial production last month.

FedEx lowered its earnings forecast Friday, citing higher fuel costs and a slumping US domestic freight market and Starbucks reported solid quarterly numbers but cut its 2008 earnings forecast and said it had experienced a fall in traffic at its thousands of US coffee shops.

In commodity trading, oil prices fell Friday as West Texas Intermediate oil for December delivery closed up $US1.77 at $US93.84 a barrel in New York and gold prices fell 30 cents to $787 an ounce for December metal.

Copper rose in New York on speculation that a five-week slump in the price will attract buyers from China, the world's largest user of the metal.

Before Friday, copper had fallen 17% since the start of October because of a slowdown in Chinese imports and the growing fear of a US economic slowdown.

Demand in China, the world's fastest-growing major economy, increased 38% percent in the eight months ended August 31, according to a report from the International Copper Study Group. But that was before imports slowed in late September and into October.

Nevertheless the report brought the bulls back into the market forecasting a rise in Chinese buying now that prices are down.

They were saying that a couple of weeks ago but no new Chinese buying eventuated.

Comex copper for March delivery rose 7.55 US cents on the speculation on Friday, to $US3.20 a pound in New York. The price was up 0.6% last week for the March contract which is the new most active month).

While global mining output was lower in the first eight months of the year, stockpiles monitored by the London Metal Exchange have risen 7.6% so far this month.

On the LME, three month copper rose $US111 to $US7,040 a tonne, or $US3.19 a pound, on Friday.

Aluminum dropped $US19 to $US2,550 a tonne on the LME; lead slid $US180, or 5.2%, to $US3,310 a tonne, and nickel dropped $US445 to $US31,250 a ton. Tin rose $US25 to $US17,400 a ton.

Zinc dropped $62.50, or 2.4%, to $2,525 a tonne after earlier touching $US2,495, the lowest since March 2006.

Looking at the best and worst performers in the ASX 200 on Friday there was a clear story emerging.

The hot stocks, such as Fortescue (FMG) rose because of individual stories rather than momentum or a theme.

Fortescue jumped 15% to $58.50 after reporting inferred reserves of more than one billion tonnes in a new deposit in the Pilbara and then revealing plans to try and use the BHP move on Rio to get access to the iron ore rail lines of the two giants in the Pilbara.

Sigma Pharmaceuticals rose on claims of an improved outlook. It finished 9.9% higher at $1.66. It is now up 40c on its low of $1.25 hit in early October. Something could be happening. Could it be a player in the Symbion takeover imbroglio, with Primary Healthcare?

In contrast the worst performing stocks of the week fell because of momentum and a theme: bearish news on commodities or in reports.

Woodside and Paladin both fell: WP was down 15.3% to $46.87 after downgrading its 2008 production forecast, Paladin fell 18.33% on disappointing news to shareholders in its latest quarterly report.

Lihir Gold fell 10.77% to $3.81 and Newcrest fell 10% to $32.25 after world gold prices tumbled Thursday night and Friday. Oxiana fell 7.7% to $3.81 as those latest stories about a merger with Zinifex fell over.

Goodman Fielder rose 5% to $2.10, a sign of how few strong performers there were last week. Downer EDI, like Woodside, a serial downgrade, fell 4.6% to $4.92 and Orica finished the week off 4.5% at $28.12 after reporting OK earnings for the 2007 financial year.

Mineral sands group Iluka rose nearly 11% to $4.55.

Qantas rose 1% to $5.86 after its big plane order news at the AGM that saw the retirement of chairman, Margaret Jackson.

BHP fell $1.32 over the week, or 3.1% to $41.15 and Rio ended 0.24% higher at $131.21.

Woolworths shares fell 17c to $32.20 after Friday's AGM was given a big hint that the company would look to a capital return this year if its corporate plays didn't work out.

About Glenn Dyer

Glenn Dyer has been a finance journalist and TV producer for more than 40 years. He has worked at Maxwell Newton Publications, Queensland Newspapers, AAP, The Australian Financial Review, The Nine Network and Crikey.

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