Aussie Dollar’s Surge Spreads Through Markets

By Glenn Dyer | More Articles by Glenn Dyer

US markets shrugged off oil above $US92 a barrel as they looked to this week's two-day Fed meeting for another rate cut.

But seeing that rise in oil, gold and copper, plus the better tone on Wall Street boosted the Aussie dollar to new 23 year highs of close to 92 US cents; will our market take a breather and re-assess?

Probably not: copper, gold and oil are still seen as positive drivers here while news of iron ore contract negotiations will probably emerge in the next week to 10 days to give the likes of BHP and Rio another boost.

An interest rate rise next week seems to be already factored in, as does the election result.

The AMP's chief strategist, Dr Shane Oliver, believes the correction or consolidation in shares that has been underway over the last two weeks "may have a bit further to run. Shares have run up a bit too fast from their mid-August lows and are due for a rest.

"The latest bout of worries about the US economic and profit outlook not helped by the surge in oil prices to above $US90 a barrel is likely to ensure than investors remain cautious over the next few weeks or so."

But he says this pause is likely to be "relatively shallow and the broad trend in shares is likely to remain up.

"Sharemarkets are still not expensive, profit growth is likely to remain reasonable and lower US interest rates will provide a strong source of support for share. As such, shares are likely to provide strong returns into year end and through next year."

Gold prices climbed above $US780 an ounce in New York on Friday and seem well on their way towards the 1980 record high of $US850 an ounce.

After oil topped $US92 a barrel in New York early Saturday our time, it seems to have some momentum to head towards $US100 a barrel either in the next few weeks or if not, then next year.

Dr Oliver says the $A is on its way to parity against the $US and "despite the renewed uncertainty about US and global growth it has managed to hold up pretty well over the last two weeks suggesting that buying support remains strong.

"More fundamentally the combination of an ever widening differential between Australian interest rates and those in the US and elsewhere combined with still strong commodity prices are likely to continue pushing the $A higher.

"Parity against the $US is likely be reached some time in the next six months."

Our market last week managed another small gain: around 0.1% for the All Ords (up 6.10 points) to 67160.40, with a similar rise for the ASX 200.

After Wall Street's solid gains on Friday, another improvement here today is seen: the Share Price Index was showing a 58 point gain when trading finished early Saturday morning, our time.

For the week, the Dow rose 2.1%, the Standard & Poor's 500 Index added 2.31% and the NASDAQ Composite Index 2.90% (thanks to a strong performance by Microsoft on Friday).

For the year so far, the Dow is up 10.78%, the S&P 500 is up 8.25% and the NASDAQ is up 16.1%.

Microsoft shares rose 9.5% to a six-year high after quarterly sales beat projections by more than $1 billion and Countrywide, the largest and troubled US mortgage lender, had the biggest rise since 1982 after telling investors its last quarter was its "earnings trough.'' and the company would be back in profit in the next quarter.

Merrill Lynch, which reported a surprise larger loss last week, saw its shares jump the most in five years on suggestions in the media that chief executive, Stanley O'Neal, will be sacked because of those terrible losses.

The S&P 500 climbed 20.88 points on Friday to 1,535.28, the Dow gained 134.78 to 13,806.7 and NASDAQ jumped 53.33 to 2,804.19 after that Microsoft news.

About Glenn Dyer

Glenn Dyer has been a finance journalist and TV producer for more than 40 years. He has worked at Maxwell Newton Publications, Queensland Newspapers, AAP, The Australian Financial Review, The Nine Network and Crikey.

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