Situations – NCM, BXB, PRY, PBL, LEI

By Glenn Dyer | More Articles by Glenn Dyer

The turmoil and confusion on Friday meant that a revealing result from Newcrest Mining slipped past most investors.

Australia's largest gold miner said a net profit for 2007 was $72 million, around the forecasts from the market.

The result was made confusing by a couple of factors.

The 2006 result was boosted considerably by the sale of a mine sale and in the 2007 it incurred costs in restructuring its hedge book.

NCM said net profit of $72 million equated to 21.5 cents a share for the year to June, compared to the $349.5 million or 104.5 cents in 2006.

Consensus in the market seems to have been for net earnings in the range of $70 million to $73 million.

Excluding the cost of restructuring the hedge book, profit rose 40% to $194.5 million on increased gold output and higher copper prices.

The 2006's profit was boosted by the $218.2 million sale of its 22% stake in the Boddington gold mine. The company took a hedge accounting charge of $122.5 million this year.

Revenue rose $300 million to A$1.7 billion for the year to June. The company will pay an unfranked dividend of 5 cents per share.

The shares shed 26c to close at $24.26 on Friday after swinging through a big range of a high of $25 and a low of $23.27.

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Meanwhile Brambles expects a formal response from Asciano about its intentions later today, after again flushing out more buying from the TOLL spin-off.

Brambles said on Friday it had found more buying for the second day in a row.

It said that Asciano had raised its stake by a further 4.1 million shares via a subsidiary of its adviser, Macquarie Bank, to 2.5%. That is up from 1.8%.

Asciano's board (and the Toll board) are due to meet today and tomorrow to discuss 2007 results. Brokers say Asciano is expected to discuss Brambles and to make a statement.

Brambles is still ignorant of what Asciano wants and whether its former parent, Toll, will be involved. Toll has a small stake as well but cannot co-operate with AIO for fear of enraging the competition regulator and breaching enforceable undertakings both groups have signed with the ACCC.

Brambles sent notices on Friday demanding answers for the second time this week to both Asciano and the Macquarie subsidiary, Belike Nominees.

Brambles shares rose for the second day in a row on Friday (amid all the volatility and turmoil) as punters hoped for a deal that could be worth $21 million.

Just who would be prepared to lend AIO and/or Toll the $21 billion (or part thereof) in the present market seems to have been a question no one has stopped to think about.

Brambles is more than three times Asciano's size in market value.

Some desperate analysts have conjured up a local private equity supported offer, but that ignores what has happened in world and local financial markets which have shutdown all forms of short term funding, even to highly-rated companies.

Brambles shares rose 8c on Friday to $12.90: a rare bit of green in a red day on market.

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And Primary Healthcare continues to tantalize and fascinate punters with its advance up the share register of Symbol Health, in apparent disregard of the volatile market and the love affair Symbion is having with Healthscope.

PRY said on Friday it now held a stake of 18.8% in SYB, which is involved in the $2.8 billion bid merger with HSP.

PRY shares slumped 23c to $10.90 on Friday, Symbion shares fell 5c to $3.92, but Healthscope shares edged up a cent to $5.20, still under the $5.30 stake they have to remain from the start of next week for ten consecutive days. If they don't, SYB can call off the bid.

PRY still won't say what it plans to do with its stake or how it plans to vote at a meeting of SYB shareholders on September 11 to consider the scheme of arrangement merger with Healthscope.

Friday's close for PRY is the lowest point for around a year. The shares might bounce if the market holds the gains expected at the opening today but there's clearly rising nervousness about the exposure it has to Symbion, without any sign of a known strategy. The PRY stake would have a cost now of around $380 million.

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Still in healthcare, market leader Sigma is not travelling well. The shares took a hammering last week with the departure of the chief financial officer without a real explanation.

The shares closed 5c higher on Friday at $1.42 on Thursday.

What worried investors was the fact that the CFO departs on August 31, right in the middle of the interim report preparation for Sigma.

While a search for a successor is under way Sigma said that "as an interim measure, Nick Terry, a senior Deloitte finance resource has been seconded to the Company to support the Managing Director and the finance team throughout the half year reporting period or until such time as the replacement Chief Financial Officer is appointed".

Sigma's interim profit is not expected to be convincing because of cost problems and low returns from some parts of the businesses, especially the returns it gets from the Government for selling generic drugs.

Helping the Sigma share price on Friday was the news that Suncorp Metway and its recently acquired Promina insurance group had emerged as a substantial shareholder with 5.685% or 54.4 million shares. That was less than the 5.9% reported on Thursday. But Sigma still fell 19% or 35c last week (no doubt that was amplified by the turmoil).

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And Leighton Holdings continues to chase smaller contracting rival, Macmahon Holdings, with the news Friday that it upped its stake to 14.9% from 11.5%.

Leighton has been pressuring Macmahon to agree to a proposal to place shares with it to give LEI a substantial minority stake of 30%. Macmahon

About Glenn Dyer

Glenn Dyer has been a finance journalist and TV producer for more than 40 years. He has worked at Maxwell Newton Publications, Queensland Newspapers, AAP, The Australian Financial Review, The Nine Network and Crikey.

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