Copper Leads Major Commodities Lower

By Glenn Dyer | More Articles by Glenn Dyer

No help from commodities today to steady our market like there was a week ago.

A sharp fall in the price of copper, the key commodity for our market, will not support the likes of BHP-Billiton, Rio, Oxiana and the other resource stocks.

A rise in gold might provide a tiny bit of help, but that was the now usual reaction to a small fall in the value of the US dollar against the euro rather than any other factor.

The Australian dollar finished around 85.47 USc in New York, down on the 85.78 USc finish in Sydney earlier in the trading day on Friday.

The Aussie's weakness was as much related to the dip in commodity prices as it was to any other factor.

Comex copper in New York dropped by the biggest margin in eight weeks after those figures on jobs and the service sector suggested that the US economy could be slowing.

A slowing US economy would mean lower demand for metals and many other commodities.

The US is the second biggest user of copper in the world: China is of course the biggest and a slow-down in the US would free more metal for sale to China, taking some of the price tension out of the market.

Oil prices also fell with West Texas Intermediate falling on the New York Mercantile Exchange after the jobs news.

Comex gold for December however rose $US7.80 to $US684.40 an ounce because the US dollar fell against the euro.

September copper on Comex fell 9.4 USc or 2.6% on Friday to $US3.479/lb. That was the biggest percentage drop since June 8.

The price dropped 1.9% last week following a 4.3% decline the previous week.

The Institute for Supply Management's Index of non-manufacturing businesses, including builders, fell to 55.8 last month from 60.7 in June, the biggest drop in almost two years. Economists were surprised by the sharper than forecast fall. As with all these indexes, readings above 50 indicate growth, but it now seems to be slowing.

US jobs growth slowed to 92,000 in July from 126,000 in June and that too was down on forecasts, but at least jobs are still being created, not destroyed.

Copper stocks rose to their highest level in a month, which also didn't help sentiment.

The metal also fell after global inventories rose to the highest in almost a month, easing supply concerns, traders said. Stocks rose in London at LME warehouses and in Shanghai.

On the LME, three month copper fell $US205, or 2.6%, to $7,670 a tonne or $US3.48/lb.

Nickel fell 3.9% to $US 29,300 a tonne on last week, sinking below the key $US30,000 level as cutbacks by stainless steel producers weighed on sentiment. The price of the metal is now down more than $US22,000 a tonne since the peak three months ago.

Wheat prices traded near recent 11-year highs last week: they closed at $US6.69/bushell, up 5.5 USc on Friday alone.

World stocks of the grain have slid to a 30-year low and a significant decline in production this year is feared. This year's French and German crops are forecast to be lower, as have crops in Eastern Europe.

The Canadian Wheat Board has cut its forecast to 20m tonnes, a 6% decline from the previous estimate of 21.2m tonnes. Australia's is still on track with a forecast of around 22.5 million tonnes.

Oil, like copper, was hit by the jobs report and the services index news.

Crude oil for September delivery fell $1.38to settle at $75.48 a barrel on Nymex. Oil fell 2% last week, after hitting $US78.77 on Aug. 1, the highest since trading began in 1983.

September Brent crude eased $US1.01 to $US74.75 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures exchange. It was the lowest close since July 5.

About Glenn Dyer

Glenn Dyer has been a finance journalist and TV producer for more than 40 years. He has worked at Maxwell Newton Publications, Queensland Newspapers, AAP, The Australian Financial Review, The Nine Network and Crikey.

View more articles by Glenn Dyer →