Economy Picking Up Speed?

By Glenn Dyer | More Articles by Glenn Dyer

The Reserve Bank board meets in just under two weeks for the first discussion on interest rates for the new financial year. No one is expecting any move to raise or lower them.

But there's a sneaking suspicion among a growing group of economists and commentators that the economy is doing better than it appears in all the figures.

So much so that Westpac yesterday forecast a half a per cent rise in rates over the first half of next year.

That's based on what showed up in the latest Westpac-Melbourne Institute's Leading Index of Economic Activity, which was also released yesterday.

It shows the likely pace of economic activity three to nine months into the future.

It rose 1.7 points to 251.7 index points, according to yesterday's release, bringing the annualized pace of growth to strong 6.7 per cent in April, well above its long-term trend of 4.4 per cent.

And a sign the economy's growth could very well accelerate in coming months, putting more pressure on the RBA to lift rates, as the bank forecasts.

But it should be remembered Westpac was strong on the chances of a rate rise in the first half of this year, but we escaped because inflation slowed unexpectedly, despite a sharp rise in the pace of economic activity.

Adding to growth will be the impact of the rebound in rural Australia to factor in, with better than expected rains along the NSW coast this month having a positive impact on the country's biggest and most sluggish state economy.

The NSW Government is banking on an upturn: it has to to make the 2007-08 budget and its $400 million or so surplus work.

But it seems economic activity generally is likely to accelerate over coming months and this could kick on for much longer than previously believed.

Westpac Chief Economist, Bill Evans, said the the combination of strong demand growth, signalled by the leading index, and a rising trend in inflation and wages growth throughout 2007 would likely cause the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to raise interest rates by at least 0.5 percentage points in the first half of 2008.

Mr Evans said he did not expect the RBA to raise rates when it meets next month.

He said that not only had the economy shown signs of accelerating, but it had been travelling faster than previously thought.

The recent strong national accounts data for the March quarter resulted in a significant upwards revision to the previous growth rate of 4.4 per cent in March to 6.4 per cent.

"The revisions only accentuate the consistent message which the Leading Index has been sending for the last year or so," Mr Evans said.

"That is that the Australian economy is very likely to have entered a period of strong sustained economic growth."

He said Westpac expects economic growth of 4.2 per cent in 2007 and 4.5 per cent in 2008.

"That will be supported by strong consumer spending; a recovery in dwelling investment; solid growth in business investment and a welcome acceleration in export growth."

The coincident index, which indicates current economic activity, rose by 0.7 points in April to 233.3 index points.

This was due to an 0.3 per cent jump in employment and a decline in the unemployment rate.

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Meanwhile Australian drivers are continuing the switch from larger cars to more fuel-efficient smaller vehicles.

Sales of gas-guzzling four wheel drives, also known as sports utility vehicles (SUVs), fell for the first time this year in May, according to car sales figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics.

The ABS said total Australian new motor vehicle sales eased half a per cent last month, in seasonally adjusted terms, to 85,410 units, compared to a downwardly revised 85,817 units in April.

But over the year to May, total vehicle sales are up 6.6 per cent on a year earlier.

SUV sales fell 3.4 per cent in May to 15,722 units as petrol prices again rose, while passenger cars sales edged up 0.6 per cent to 52,307.

About Glenn Dyer

Glenn Dyer has been a finance journalist and TV producer for more than 40 years. He has worked at Maxwell Newton Publications, Queensland Newspapers, AAP, The Australian Financial Review, The Nine Network and Crikey.

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