Origin Energy’s underlying profit might have surged more than 40% in the year to June, but the coming year will be tougher, so a new dividend policy will be adopted to handle any slowdown.
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Solid quarterly updates from the two remaining energy groups yesterday for the three months to March in the shape of the Kerry Stokes-dominated Beach Energy and LNG exporter and power operator, Origin.
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Origin Energy produced the second encouraging December quarter statement from an energy group yesterday after beach upgraded its output guidance by 10%.
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Origin Energy is well and truly in the black and is looking to restart dividends to patient shareholders in 2019.
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Origin Energy shares staged a modest rise yesterday on the back of news that the company had achieved record production and revenue in the June quarter thanks to higher production from its joint-owned APLNG project and higher oil and gas prices.
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Commodity revenue was 5% ahead of Credit Suisse forecasts in the first quarter while LNG revenue was 12% ahead. The broker adjusts realised price assumptions for the next year relative to Brent oil pricing.
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APLNG cash flows were slightly ahead of Citi's expectations. The break-even operating oil price is now calculated at US$21/bbl.
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APLNG continues to increase cash distributions and the company has now guided to around $850m in FY19, ahead of UBS estimates. APLNG achieved the highest realised LNG price this quarter relative to other Australian E&P's.
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Macquarie points out earnings expectations in energy markets now reflect the falling LREC price and the inability for Origin Energy to offset this from other sources.
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Morgans observes the stock has declined -25% over the last year, amid concerns about regulation in the electricity market and a volatile oil price.
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