Five Charts & A Table That Are Critical To Watch
Five key global charts to watch as to whether this will be the case are: global business conditions PMIs; global inflation; the US yield curve; the US dollar; and global trade growth.
Read MoreEconomics
Wages Growth Still Hard To Find
Wage growth actually slowed a touch in the December quarter according to data released yesterday in the latest Wage Price Index from the Australian Bureau of Statistics.
Read MoreChinese Inflation Evaporates In January
More evidence that the pace of economic activity in China – especially in manufacturing – is weakening.
Read MoreLunar Holiday Blurs China Trade Picture
On the face of it China’s January trade performance was better than expected but once again it has been the timing of the Lunar New Year holidays in February that has distorted the figures.
Read MoreRBNZ Adopts Similar Stance To The RBA On Rates
The Reserve Bank of NZ has left its key Official Cash Rate (OCR) steady at 1.75% and says it expects to maintain this level for at least the next two years.
Read MoreHome Lending Data Continues On A Downtrend Trend
As expected home lending fell sharply in December to be down sharply for 2018 as a whole as loans for apartments and units fell steeply followed loans for owner-occupiers.
Read MoreNAB Economists Shift View On Rates
Despite a small improvement in business conditions in January after December’s sharp fall and a small improvement in business confidence, the National Australia Bank has had significant change of heart and is now forecasting that the Reserve Bank will leave rates on hold for a long time – well into next decade – but with a rate cut not out of the question.
Read MoreTrade Data Detail Supports RBA’s Case For Optimism
The seasonally adjusted trade surplus for December of more than $3.6 billion was the second largest ever and moreover, Australia notched up a trade surplus in every month of 2018 – the first time every that has been achieved.
Read MoreRBA Walks Back Growth Outlook, Rate Cut Now 50/50
The Reserve Bank of Australia has revealed it has made a major change in its monetary policy stance, with a cut in the cash rate now even money bet.
Read MoreRetail, Car Sales Add Weight To Weakening Outlook
December’s retail and January car sales slowed more than normal with new figures showing big falls in activity.
Read MoreRBA Holds Steady Despite Slowdown Risks
Rates have now been on hold at the record low for 30 months straight, but financial markets are starting predicting the next rate move is more likely to be a cut than a hike as declining house prices impact on household spending.
Read MoreHousing, Jobs Data Soft Ahead Of RBA Meeting
The Reserve Bank board will find one or two points of interest from yesterday’s data releases at its first meeting today, but it won’t change the policy stance of no move in rates for the time being.
Read MoreS&P Upgrades Outlook On Kiwi Economy
Unlike the worst fears of her critics, the NZ Labour-led government of PM Jacinda Arden has not been bad for the country’s economy or its credit rating.
Read MoreWhy Should Be Wary Of A Dovish Fed
The change in approach from the US Federal Reserve in its post-January meeting statement for the Open Market Committee is another example of how investors and markets should be ‘careful what they wish for’.
Read More‘Patient’ Fed Leaves US Rates On Hold
The chances for more rate rises in the US this year have been reduced dramatically after a change of heart by the US Federal Reserve.
Read MoreTepid Inflation Data Opens Door To RBA Cut
Pressures remains on the Reserve Bank to cut interest rates after another weak quarter for inflation in the three months to December.
Read MoreBusiness Conditions Turn Down Again In December
Now December was either a one-off so far as business conditions are concerned, or it saw the start of a new lower trend that should see concern rise about the further direction of Australian economic growth.
Read MoreEmployment Data Losing Momentum As Full Time Jobs Fade
Australia’s job creation boomed slowed sharply in 2018, but growth still topped long term averages according to the December Labour Force report from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) yesterday.
Read MoreJapan Adds To Weaker Trade Picture
Japan has joined the likes of China, South Korea, Singapore, Thailand, and Indonesia in revealing a sharp slowdown in exports.
Read MoreChina Posts Slowest GDP Growth In 29 Years
As expected the slowdown in the Chinese economy saw 2018 GDP grow by 6.6% – the lowest annual growth rate for 29 years, supporting the picture of recent weaker performance seen in other indicators such as investment, retail sales, and industrial production.
Read MoreData Drop Confirm Broad Slowdown In China
The final dump of Chinese economic data for December and 2018 has confirmed the economy is in the midst of a worrying slowdown.
Read More2019 – A List Of Lists Regarding The Macro Investment Outlook
Despite continued volatility, 2019 is likely to be better for diversified investors than 2018 was. Watch the US trade war, the Fed, global business conditions indicators, Chinese growth, politics and the Sydney and Melbourne property markets.
Read MoreTariff War Dents China Trade Data
Bad news or a one-off reaction to signs of movement in the trade war with Donald Trump’s America? We won’t know for several months, but China’s trade performance in December knocked markets across Asia on Monday.
Read MoreChina Maintains Healthy Commodities Appetite Despite Trade Slowdown
China’s December and 2018 trade figures showed higher imports of oil, LNG, and coal, steady levels of iron ore shipments and lower levels for soybeans and copper.
Read MoreChina Car Sales Hit The Brakes
Perhaps the best data so far on the extent of the slowdown in domestic demand in China from the car sales data for the country for December and 2018 which showed the first drop in total vehicle sales for 29 years.
Read MoreChina Tempers Growth Aspirations
The Chinese government has bowed to the inevitable and has set a lower economic growth target for 2019 of 6% to 6.5%.
Read MoreParadice Investment Management Discuss Market Volatility
In this Informed Investor video James McBeath, Portfolio Manager at Paradice Investment Management explains what is behind the current volatility in global markets and examines the macroeconomic factors set to impact markets in 2019.
Read MoreThe Fed And Market Turmoil
A more cautious Fed should provide some support for markets although more falls are possible into early next year before markets bottom and head higher as investors realise the US/global economy is not going into recession soon.
Read MoreJobs Data Holds In November As Participation Rate Rises
November’s unemployment data showed all the hallmarks of an end of year set of data – a fall in full-time work as companies adjust their workforces towards the end of the year (such as TV) and a big jump in part-time work as retailers and suppliers and distributors for the great Christmas – New year sales rush boost employment.
Read MoreItaly Risks Reigniting The Eurozone Crisis
In this article, Michael Collins from Magellan Asset Management discusses how another eurosceptic and indebted country is testing Brussels’s power over the eurozone project.
Read MoreThe Australian Economy In 2019 – House Prices, Growth & Interest Rates
Australian growth has slowed again and while local shares are still great for income, global shares are likely to remain outperformers for capital growth in 2019.
Read MoreCaution Reigns At First CFR Meeting
Relaxed, but alert? That’s one way of describing the attitude of the nation’s supreme council of financial regulators to the home price crunch and the tighter lending activity.
Read MoreOz Business Confidence, Conditions Soften In November
Australian business conditions and confidence are clearly cooling, judging by the November NAB business survey as the softening that started midyear continued last month.
Read MoreReview Of 2018, Outlook For 2019 – Another Cycle Extension
After the turmoil of 2018, the outlook for 2019 comes with greater than normal uncertainty. Here are the main things to keep an eye on in the year ahead.
Read MoreOnline Records But Retail Sales Slightly Softer
Retail sales rose a sedate 0.3% in October, as online spending hit a record high and spending rose on clothing and footwear but fell in cafes, restaurants, and takeaway food services.
Read MoreBig GDP Miss Fuels Rate Cut Speculation
Australia’s September quarter GDP has disappointed expectations by a long way, slowing sharply to just 0.3% from the June quarter (when it grew 0.9%), and well below expectations for a 0.6% rise.
Read MoreGDP To Surprise On The Upside?
There’s a possibility that the September quarter GDP, to be reported in the national accounts for the quarter out later this morning, could be better than expected.
Read MoreRBA Ends 2018 Where It Began
The Reserve Bank of Australia has once again kept its key interest rate unchanged at the record low of 1.5%.
Read MoreMixed Economic Data Unlikely To Sway RBA
Mixed economic news yesterday ahead of the last Reserve Bank board meeting for the year later today.
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