Diary: PMI Surveys, Local Miners in Focus

By Glenn Dyer | More Articles by Glenn Dyer

A busy week for data, US quarterly reports and possibly more records for stockmarkets as the flood of stimulus spending keeps the markets buoyant.

Interest rate decisions are from central banks in the eurozone, Canada, Indonesia and Russia, while the Reserve Bank of Australia releases the minutes from its April meeting tomorrow.

This week also sees the release of flash PMI surveys covering more than half of the world’s economic output which will provide a timely update on the strength of the current recovery, and also highlight Covid-driven problems in pats of Europe, Japan, Brazil and especially India.

Other major releases include industrial production, trade and inflation numbers for Japan, UK labour market, retail sales, state borrowing and inflation statistics, plus Eurozone bank lending and confidence surveys.

The US sees jobless claims and homes sales updates in what is a quiet week, although the March quarter earnings season steps up.

In Australia the minutes from the RBA’s last meeting (tomorrow) will remain dovish and there’s the preliminary March retail sales (on Wednesday) to show a 1% bounce after the ending of short lockdowns in Victoria and WA.

Plus there’s updated payroll data on jobs.

The AMP’s chief economist, Shane Oliver says the Australian ‘flash’ business conditions surveys for April on Friday will be strong.

Also in Australia this week we’ll see the start of quarterly reports from some of the country’s biggest miners (and the world’s) and energy groups.

Rio Tinto releases its first quarter figures tomorrow, with BHP following the next day with its third quarter figures (both for the three months to March).

Both reports will be examined closely for the performance of their huge WA iron ore operations with shipments to China falling 12.4 million tonnes in January and February, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics merchandise trade data for both months.

Woodside releases its first quarter figures on Thursday – Santos usually releases its first quarter figures around the same time or a day later.

OZ Minerals also releases its first quarter figures on Thursday.

Australian Pharmaceutical Industries (API) is due to release its half year earnings later this week.

In the US, there’s the business activity surveys on Friday and Dr Oliver sees (like Australia), those showing remaining “very strong around their March reading of 59.7”.

March existing home sales on Thursday and new home sales on Friday should bounce back after storm related falls in February.

The US March quarter earnings reporting season is already off to a good start with bank results and will ramp up in the week ahead (See separate story).

In Europe, Thursday sees the European Central Bank Thursday) meet and leave monetary policy on hold .

The April business activity surveys on Friday will to be watched closely after their surprise rise to a solid 53.2 in March despite coronavirus related setbacks.

Japanese trade and industrial production data for March are out today, while Dr Oliver says core inflation for March on Friday is likely to remain soft.

Japanese business activity surveys for April will also be released on Friday.


About Glenn Dyer

Glenn Dyer has been a finance journalist and TV producer for more than 40 years. He has worked at Maxwell Newton Publications, Queensland Newspapers, AAP, The Australian Financial Review, The Nine Network and Crikey.

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