As we end the week on renewed weakness on Wall Street and locally we will enter next week with a nothing less than an uncertain outlook. An outlook that is likely to persist at least until we get out of October, depending whatever might transpire in the meantime.
The US earnings season will shift into full gear next week and so far evidence suggests a modest beat is not sufficient to overcome nervous sentiment.
As I write, today’s Chinese GDP number is yet to be released, which could spark further volatility if Beijing fails to choose its preferred result carefully.
The US will release a first estimate of September quarter GDP next Friday. August and September data have been surprisingly strong, leading to higher US rates, so that number will be particularly critical and also finely balanced. A too-hot number could be problematic.
Monthly data releases next week include new and pending home sales, house prices, durable goods, consumer sentiment, the Richmond Fed index and a flash estimate of October manufacturing PMI. The Fed Beige Book is also due.
The ECB’s monetary policy meeting on Thursday will be interesting in the face of Italy’s recalcitrance.
In Australia it’s a quiet week economically but a busy one on the local stock front. Quarterly production reports from the resource sectors will continue to roll in along with quarterly updates from other sectors. The AGM season will ramp up considerably.
