Shares Down In November, But December?

By Glenn Dyer | More Articles by Glenn Dyer

November, what a heartbreak month you were.

Instead of worrying about October and the anniversary of the crash of October, 1987, we should have been focusing on the credit crunch and paying more attention to the rumbles in the US, not being seduced by the one-off passions of BHP Billiton's $US150 billion dowry waved in the general direction of Rio Tinto.

Look at what has happened on the US markets.

By midway through last week Wall Street had officially corrected with a 10%-plus fall from its October high.

Then came the bail out of Citigroup by an Arab wealth fund and two days of Fed-induced speculation on lower interest rates and the markets snap back, ready for a rebound.

Well, maybe once they see the color of the Fed's rate cut next Wednesday morning, our time.

US stocks rose on the week, making it the best five days of trading since March.

The S&P 500 rose 11.42, points Friday to 1,481.14; the Dow average 59.99 to 13,371.72 and but Nasdaq fell 7.17 to 2,660.96.

For the week, the S&P 500 added 2.8%, the Dow average 3% and Nasdaq 2.5%. On November 26, the S&P 500 had dropped 10.1% from its October 9 record and that made it an official correction (of 10% more from a peak) The S&P 500 added 5.3% since November 26.

Even with this week's advance, the S&P 500 and the Dow had the biggest monthly declines in five years.

The Dow fell 4%, the S&P 500 4.4% and the Nasdaq was down 6.9%, its worst monthly drop since July 2004, when it slumped nearly 8%.

You could say November was a month for realism, although the Fed-driven interest rate cut hysteria of Thursday and Friday won't change the reality that the Fed is cutting into a looming recession to soften the landing, not revitalise the economy.

And for all the bullishness around the BHP-Rio situation, the reality is that Australia had a tough November as well.

The broader and narrower markets of the All Ords and ASX200 were down 3.3% and it was the credit and subprime worries from the US that were the drivers, along with rising interest rates and some niggling concerns about the impact of the high dollar on 2008 earnings here.

November was also annual meeting time and there were a number of surprise corporate earnings changes or revisions.

The ASX 200 last week rose 1.4% on Friday to 6533.1, and it was also up 3.2% over the week, while the All Ords rose by a similar amount to 6593.6 to be up 3.15% over the week.

Over the month the 3.3% fall in the ASX 200 was the worst since May of last year when there was another correction driven by rising commodity and inflation concerns.

The overall market is up by just over 15% from January.

So a quick look at the winners and losers of the month.

Rio was the tops with a near 32% rise in price: the cause doesn't need explanation. Bendigo Bank was second with 23.9% as the merger with Adelaide Bank went through and the merged group was then re-rated as it moved up in market capitalisation rankings and that drove demand for more fund managers to stock up on the shares.

That was something many fund managers missed badly and they got caught short.

Third was Flight Centre, up 20.3% on better earnings and an acquisition in the US. Likewise Computershare rose despite its US dollar earnings, but because of an acquisition in Germany of a bank involved in the processing of shares and other financial instruments.

Bolnisi Gold did well, up 15.3%, as did Hills Industries, rising 14.9% and Resmed bounced from being sold off to end with a 14.9% gain.

Macmahon Holdings rose 14% because of the link up with Leighton was settled and Queensland Gas rose 13.2% as it was re-rated by investors: it is 29% owned by struggling utility, AGL Energy.

Fortescue Metals would have been near the top of most punters' lists for the best performer, but it was only up 13.2% and in 10th spot.

Among the less than happy stocks, AED Oil was down 51% on lower forecasts of oil production from its Puffin field; Boom Logistics fell 31% on weaker demand and tougher competition. Boom has been a disappointment now for some time.

Downer EDI was down a 25.5% on the downgrade and general hesitation by investors to commit; it can't even raise a spark as a possible takeover target.

Murchison Metals was off 25.33% as its takeover offer for rival WA iron ore wannabee, Midwest Corporation was spurned.

Small miner, Perilya was also sold off, losing almost 24% of its value after the takeover of Herald Resources didn't bring with it the blessing of the Indonesian Government for a key permit.

Emeco, the heavy construction equipment rental group fell almost 22% after the AGM last month didn't impress investors. It has also been a problematic performer since its float a couple of years ago by some private equity groups.

Centro Properties was down more 21% (and 14% of that last week) after the subprime crisis worries from the US were finally picked up by local investors. US investment by local property trusts hasn't been the smartest of moves.

ABC Learning is another with US exposure, and US dollar worries and forecasts of a slow down in earnings growth from 20% to 15% for the 2008 year wasn't taken well by investors who have grown sceptical of the company's accounts and accounting.

Henderson, the former UK part of AMP, now a stand alone fund manager, fell on growing worries the British economy and credit crunch are damaging corporate earnings and growth.

And Paladin Energy continues to go from uranium rooster, to uranium feather duster with losses and lower uranium, prices. The shares lost 17% last month.

Best sectors were the small IT group, the consumer staples (Woolies) was solid, up 2.2% (but Goodman Fielder was weaker) and the losses were concentrated in energy (off 2.68%) to financials, down 5

About Glenn Dyer

Glenn Dyer has been a finance journalist and TV producer for more than 40 years. He has worked at Maxwell Newton Publications, Queensland Newspapers, AAP, The Australian Financial Review, The Nine Network and Crikey.

View more articles by Glenn Dyer →