Oil refiner and retailer Viva Energy has been bitten by rising global oil prices - not only have earnings taken a $35 million because of the sharp rise in oil prices so far this year but that it expects more pain to come.
2019 guidance for operating earnings (EBITDA) of $371-401m is -15% below UBS estimates. The broker notes the business is, by its nature, volatile and that is reflected in the high PE discount to the market.
Viva Energy's Sep Q update revealed refiner margins ahead of forecasts but retail margins remaining soft. This comes out as a net positive, with UBS suggesting 9% upside to consensus forecasts on better refiner margins with some offset from weak retail.
Viva's update confirmed refinery earnings are even worse than the broker had feared, but there are signs of strength in Fuels & Marketing relative to the weak update provided by Caltex ((CTX)) last week. The broker doesn't believe refining margins can get much worse, and retail margins are showing signs of improvement.