Bullish View Opens Up For Oil
A robust outlook for oil prices is emerging after a volatile and difficult 2020, as high levels of inventory are wound back and producers adjust to the absence of supply investment
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Santos is an Australian energy pioneer. We have safely and sustainably discovered, developed and delivered natural gas to the people of Australia and Asia for more than 60 years.
With origins in the Cooper Basin, Santos has one of the largest exploration and production acreages in Australia and extensive infrastructure. Our strategy is centred on five core, long-life natural gas and LNG assets. These assets support our aim to be a leading Australian domestic gas supplier and a major LNG exporter supplying clean energy to Asia.
As an Australian owned and operated business, we work in partnership with local communities, governments and our business partners to make natural gas an affordable and reliable energy solution for all Australians.
A robust outlook for oil prices is emerging after a volatile and difficult 2020, as high levels of inventory are wound back and producers adjust to the absence of supply investment
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Santos shares fell yesterday in the wider market slide, despite its controversial northern NSW gas project moving one step closer. The NSW Independent Planning Commission announced that it had given “phased approval” for Santos’ $3.6 billion Narrabri gas project in the northeast of the state.
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As forecast, two more oil and gas players have revealed massive slides in earnings - Origin Energy (full year) and Santos (half-year). Santos will still pay a small interim dividend despite a big half-year loss. Meanwhile, Origin Energy just missed the red ink when it reported a 93% plunge in earnings for the year.
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Santos has reported an 18% drop in second-quarter revenue due to lower its oil and gas prices following the massive collapse in April and fitful recovery since then. That was despite record production of 20.6 million barrels of oil equivalent (mmboe) in the June quarter, up from 18.6 mmboe June quarter of last year.
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Oil and gas giant Santos has become the latest local oil and gas group to take the axe to its balance sheet and slash the value of key assets because of the plunge in global prices is expected to continue for much longer than previously forecast.
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Energy analysts at Citi have increased price expectations for cude oil and LNG. The 2021 Brent oil price forecast moved to US$59/bbl from US$52/bbl. The team sees oil peaking at US$61/bbl in 1Q22. The new price target for Santos is $7.58. Rating has been downgraded to Neutral from Buy.
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With plans for several projects underway, Morgans considers Santos has an attractive combination of growth and solid underlying fundamentals.
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June quarter production and sales were in line with expectations. The company continues to progress Dorado, Barossa and the Moomba carbon capture/storage project. Infill drilling is also being considered to extend the Bayu-Undan field life.
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Santos has completed its US$1.5bn acquisition of the northern Australia/Timor-Leste assets. Macquarie notes some improvement in the settlement terms.
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Morgan Stanley wonders whether the stock is now pricing in success. While further outperformance in the near term is possible it will depend on cost initiatives, commodity prices or progress at Narrabri.
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