Structural Monitoring Systems – Changing Aviation Safety

In recent weeks and months I have been discussing global markets as a whole from a macro level identifying the risks and opportunities that exist as the world enters the late stages of what has been one of the most untrusted and hated bull markets of our time. This week I wanted to return back to local soil and discuss the only stock we hold in our proprietary trading book long-term.

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Miners Turning To Tech – 1999 All Over Again?

While the broader ASX 200 index has produced very little return over the past two years as miners have offset the gains seen in US dollar earners – even bank share prices are no better than two years ago – there is one area of the market that is beginning to froth. Micro-caps and in particular small miners, that are turning to buying technology companies in a bid to divert their business away from the resources collapse.

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Global Money Flows – Winners And Losers

We have been discussing some global macro themes in recent months and what we are likely to see as a result of the Fed tightening rates. Obviously one major thematic which has been a firm trend over the past 18 months is the strength of the US dollar. The repercussions of this strength falls heavily on emerging market economies – Latin America, Asia and the Middle East.

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Gold – How Low Can It Go?

Gold has been on the back foot for several years now despite goldbugs consistently telling us to buy the precious metal as it is important hedge against inflation and the eventual demise in asset prices around the world. Both of these upcoming events were apparently meant to have occurred already due to the money printing of global central banks and as we have seen none of this has occurred.

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Markets Brewing – Further Signs Of Euphoric Rally

Back on 26 June I wrote about the euphoric rally that is still to come that will be the cherry on the top of this global equity bull market, a bull market that has existed for virtually everyone except Australian ASX investors. Following the expected short-term weakness surrounding Greece and the realization that the Fed will raise rates in September, conditions are near perfect for an enormous rally – particularly in some key sectors – over the course of the next six to nine months.

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Nearmap Flying High In The USA

It’s time for me to revert back to individual stock opportunities. The past few weeks we have been discussing the global macro picture and some of the clues that other markets and instruments have been giving as clues to the future behaviour of equities. Sometimes though despite the broader market trends there are standout individual companies and one of these that excites us once again is Nearmap (NEA) which is now expanding into the US and gaining a lot of traction. Hence the share price improvement.

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Ctrl-Alt-Del The Reserve Bank of Australia

The title may be controversial but it’s time to sack the Reserve Bank board and replace it with the members of Federal Reserve. I said it, I mean it and I need to get it off my chest. 2015 has been a complete circus performance by the RBA – a comical event that has global investors laughing at Australia as they continue to pull their money out and invest it in places with real growth and opportunity.

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Best Ideas Are Often Ones You Can Actually See…

Whenever, I am asked by someone looking to start investing in the stock market and what should they buy I very rarely give them an actual investment. The basis for this is that everybody’s risk tolerance and investment horizon are different and simply giving them a trade idea is of no benefit. In fact it only puts my reputation at risk because inevitably even if the stock does appreciate I am unlikely to be around to tell them when to sell. I would giving them only half the trade.

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Budget Benefits Car Dealers

Two weeks ago we discussed the leading signals that pointed to Automotive Holdings Group (AHG previously AHE) being re-rated significantly higher on the basis of a profit upgrade from peer AP Eagers (APE), record new car sales for February and March and record low interest rates. Together with a low valuation, attractive 5% fully franked dividend yield and an exceptional chart formation it looked set to move to record territory.

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Benefiting From The Green Energy Movement

Two weeks ago we discussed the huge underlying changes occurring in the global automotive industry and how these long-term shifts were positively impacting the demand for lightweight aluminium – thus, buy Alumina (AWC). Based upon similar fundamental trends there has been uplift in demand for electric and hybrid powered vehicles globally with the biggest beneficiary being Tesla. Other manufacturers have had mixed success with electric vehicles, but mostly this has been due to a woeful product that is too expensive and with the recent fall in energy prices has failed to convince electric is better than combustion.

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New Car Sales At Record Highs – Who’s Doing All The Selling?

Running a proprietary trading desk it is very important that we produce consistent returns on a monthly basis while managing drawdowns and risk. Unlike fund managers with billions under management that run a large portfolio of stocks over the long-term, our focus is significantly more immediate – we just don’t have the luxury of investing millions of dollars and waiting months or years for a return. We need to rewarded within days and weeks otherwise our funds are being wasted. So our focus is not just on finding a great opportunity but timing that great opportunity as well. And in that process we often discover hidden gems. Rarely are they actually penny stocks.

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The Silent Boom In Aluminium

I have been a long-term bull on aluminium and there is a secretly quiet boom that has been occurring for over a decade. Now before discussing this boom, it needs be stressed that this is a boom in usage and not in the aluminium price as we, as investors, are typically accustomed to focusing on. A price boom in aluminium will come with time but there are ways in which investors can profit from now while still being exposed to the future potential of the aluminium industry.

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