Australia’s labour force data for June dominates the local trading week, while the start of June’s monthly flow of data will dominate offshore activity, especially in Asia.
Emerging bank pressures in eastern Europe, Scandinavia, Portugal, plus a number of central bank meetings and statements will also attract more than their share of attention this week.
And then there’s the start of the June quarter financial reporting in the US which will slowly become a big factor in sharemarkets around the world.
In Australia we start with the ANZ job ads for June today.
May’s report saw a surprise dip after five months of rises, echoing the gradually strengthening labor market.
Some forecasters see another weak month in June for new jobs.
The ANZ report correlates to the Bureau of Stats figures reasonably well, and sometimes acts as a heads up to the markets on the strength or otherwise of the ABS report.
The ABS data has shown solid job gains so far this year of more than 20,000 a month.
But our unemployment rate has only marginally improved from 6% to 5.8% in recent months.
Economists forecast a weakish report for June on Thursday, with only 10,000 or so new jobs, and unemployment edging up to 5.9% given the recent weakening in retail sales and consumer sentiment.
After last week’s rise in building approvals because of the bunching effect in local government saw a lot more approvals for non-private dwellings in May than April, Friday’s housing finance data for May this week from the Bureau of Statistics should show a solid rise in lending approvals.
And today, the overseas arrivals and departures for May should show another solid month for inbound tourist numbers (especially from China) now running at all time highs.
The monthly business confidence and conditions report from the NAB is due out tomorrow, with the monthly consumer confidence report from Westpac and the Melbourne Institute on Wednesday.
In the US, the second quarter reporting season starts tomorrow night when Alcoa releases its report.
Analysts reckon the reporting season could be a bit stronger than forecast, given the way the economy has bounced back from the first quarter contraction.
The minutes for the June of the US Federal Reserve are out midweek and will be examined to see if there is any more guidance on when the US central bank will end its quantitative easing this year and the possible timetable for raising interest rates in 2015.
American economic data is on the thin side with some figures on home building due for release as well as consumer credit data from the Fed, which are expected to show another solid month of spending and lending.
In Asia, the national elections in Indonesia tomorrow will dominate investor confidence in the region this week.
And on Thursday we will get the first budget from the new Indian Government. Indian Finance Minister Arun Jaitley will present the Modhi government’s first major economic policy statement since election in May.
Wednesday sees the inflation data for June from China’s national statistics bureau, with the imports and export data for the same month out on Thursday.
Other figures including investment, retail sales production and then the GDP data are due out next week.
In Europe, the Bank of England releases its monetary policy decision Thursday night, our time.
Analysts are now on ‘rate rise looms’ with the UK central bank, after governor Mark Carney told markets that such a move could happen sooner than later.
There are a number of central bank meetings and decisions this week, apart form the Fed’s minutes and the Bank of England’s decision.
Croatian National Bank holds its regular Council Meeting on Wednesday, while on Thursday the central banks of Serbia, Peru, South Korea, Indonesia and Malaysia meet to discuss the health of the respective economies and any possible change in interest rates. Friday sees the Mexican central bank release its rate decision.
The Indonesia decision will be watched closely because it will come three days after the national Presidential election.
