Australia isn’t the only country to see a significant improvement in recent months (see next story).
China’s trade balance rebounded strongly last month, thanks to a surge in exports and a fall in imports.
The trade surplus hit $IS11.4 billion in April, far larger than most analysts (Reuters expected a surplus of $US3 billion, Dow Jones, $US1 billion).
The figure for last month was significantly better than the surplus of $140 million in March.
It means the trade deficit for the March quarter of just over $US1 billion is almost certain to be reversed this quarter.
News of the surplus came a day before the majority of the Chinese monthly economic data is released, especially the inflation and production figures.
The surplus of $US11.4 billion, compared to $US1.68 billion a year earlier, just $US139 million in March and a deficit of $US7.3 billion in February.
China’s exports increased 29.9% in April from a year earlier to $US155.69 billion, while imports rose 21.8% year on year to reach $US144.26 billion, the Chinese Customs service said.
Last month, the growth rate of exports was 5.9 percentage points down from March while that of imports was 5.5 percentage points lower month on month.
In April, the total value of imports and exports increased 25.9% year on year to $US299.95 billion.
(On a seasonally adjusted basis Chinese exports jumped 35.1% in April from the same month a year earlier and were up a large 12.3% from March. Seasonally adjusted imports in April rose 27.4% from a year earlier and 7.4% from the previous month).
Marketwatch reported “The quick rebound to surplus is driven more by the deceleration of the Chinese economy than the robustness of global demand, attested by much slower import growth — a proxy for domestic demand,” wrote Global Insight analysts Alistair Thornton and Xianfang Ren in a note following the release of the customs data.
On a seasonally adjusted basis Chinese exports jumped 35.1% in April from the same month a year earlier and were up a large 12.3% from March.
Seasonally adjusted imports in April rose 27.4% from a year earlier and 7.4% from the previous month.
But Marketwatch also said that another analyst, Bank of America- Merrill Lynch‘s Hong Kong-based economist, Ting Lu, wrote: "Shall we get worried about a potential weakness of China’s economy? We don’t think so.”
The trade balance recovered sharply in March for February’s surprise deficit, more than tripling market forecasts in reaching a surplus of more than $1.74 billion, driven by a strong lift in coal and iron ore exports.
The February deficit was cut from the originally reported $205 million to just $87 million in yesterday’s report
from the Australian Bureau of Statistics
.
In fact we now seem on track to record a trade surplus of around $25 billion in the year to June.
Exports are running 20.5% or $39.8 billion ahead of where they were a year ago in the nine months to March ($179.45 billion vs. $139.63 billion).
Imports are up 5.7%, or 8.71 billion, in the nine months to March at $160.34 billion.
The trade account now seems to be back on track after the hit from the floods and cyclones in Queensland and Western Australia in January and February.
Economists had been forecasting a surplus of between $400 million and $500 million because of uncertainty about just how the recovery from the big wet in Queensland’s huge export coal industry was going.
Exports jumped 9% to $24.99 billion, while imports rose by just 1% to $23.25 billion.
The ABS said the sum of seasonally adjusted balances for the three months to March 2011 was a surplus of $3,203 million, down $3,587 million on the surplus of $6,790 million for the three months to December 2010.
"However, if seasonal factors used in compiling the quarterly balance of payments are applied, the March quarter 2011 surplus was $3,486m, a decrease of $3,317m on the revised December quarter 2010 surplus of $6,803m," The ABS said yesterday.
In seasonally adjusted terms, exports rose $2,106 billion with shipments of non-rural goods (metals and ores) up $1.629 billion, or 11% and exports of non-monetary gold jumping half a billion dollars or 59%. Rural exports fell $60 million, or 2% and services credits rose $33 million or 1%.
The ABS said the main components contributing to the rise in the seasonally adjusted estimates were metal ores and minerals up $891m (15%) after falling $614m (9%) the previous month, coal, coke and briquettes up $387m (14%), other mineral fuels up $222m (12%) and other non-rural (including sugar and beverages) up $129m (15%).
The ABS said that on a recorded trade basis, between February and March 2011, large value increases were recorded for the following selected commodities:
Hard coking coal rose $415m (39%) with exports to Republic of Korea up $123m and India up $99m (27%), both driven by an increase in volumes
Semi-soft coal rose $226m (45%) with exports to Republic of Korea up $126m and Japan up $50m (21%), both driven by an increase in volumes.
Imports rose $278 million thanks to increases mainly in intermediate and other merchandise goods which were up 8% or $623 million.
That increase was due to a 23% rise in the value of fuels and lubricants (up $615m). The ABS
