Government action in South Africa has led to Rio Tinto shutting down operations and developments there for three weeks. Quebec has called mining and smelting essential, but only at minimum rates. The broker has adjusted accordingly and also adjusted for commodity price and forex movements.
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So what will BHP, Rio Tinto and Fortescue Metals do now that their Brazilian iron ore rival, Vale, has raised the possibility of curbing or suspending iron ore shipments because of the growing threat of the COVID-19 virus?
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Iron ore prices look set to continue this week’s rally after Vale, the big Brazilian miner was forced to close an 11 million tonnes a year mine.
Read MoreRio Tinto will shower shareholders with billions of dollars in cash with a record final dividend for 2019 to go with the earlier record interim as high iron ore prices helped the company maintain earnings at a high level.
Read MoreGlobal iron ore prices have gotten their second boost in a week after Rio Tinto revealed that Cyclone Damien caused so much damage to the company’s Pilbara mines that it has lopped six million tonnes from the miner’s projected 2020 output.
Read MoreThe company delivered on its 2019 guidance and has set forecasts for iron ore shipments in 2020 at 330-340mt.
Read MoreRio Tinto might be forecasting production growth for its key WA iron ore operations for 2020, but any increase will be marginal compared with 2019 and the mooted target still remains under the optimistic 350 million tonnes set a year ago for 2019.
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As we enter 2020, it would appear the market is expecting the iron ore price to go down significantly, given the price of Australian mining stocks.
Read MoreCiti estimates global growth will be modestly higher in 2020, which is bullish for commodities. The broker is positive about hard coking coal in the first quarter of 2020, expecting the price to average US$170/t over the year.
Read MoreMacquarie has tweaked its iron ore shipment expectations for Rio Tinto, lifting 2019 slightly but reducing 2020 slightly on a slower ramp-up at Koodaideri. The completion of Rio’s new iron ore developments should reduce costs in the medium term, the broker suggests, but for now expected costs rise 10%.
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The mini investment boom in the Pilbara iron ore province of WA continues with Rio Tinto approving a $1 billion $US749 million investment in its existing Greater Tom Price operations (100% owned) operations to extend the life of the mine.
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A glance through the latest expert views and predictions about commodities. Large cap resources; copper; base metals; iron ore; and coal.
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With a backdrop of low interest rates where should investors seek yield? Informed Investor sat down with Scott Kelly, Portfolio Manager for the DNR Capital Australian Equities Income SMA to find out.
Read MoreWhile the free cash flow yield looks attractive, and the company has a balanced and predictable capital allocation strategy, Morgan Stanley believes it is insufficient to warrant an upgrade.
Read MoreGlobal iron ore prices are again edging higher thanks to Vale, the big Brazilian miner, lowering its 2019 production forecast and producing a third-quarter profit smaller than expected.
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It will only be small beer for a company as large as Rio Tinto, but for New Zealand, the news that the miner is reviewing the future of its Tiwai Pont aluminium smelter means a great deal.
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Vale, the big Brazilian iron ore exporter has quietly trimmed it’s production and export guidance because of a new problem at the Itabira Complex, one of its key mining zones.
Read MoreRio Tinto has maintained its iron ore shipment forecast for the year at between 320 million and 330 million tonnes meaning that it will end the year as the world’s top iron ore producer and exporter.
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A glance through the latest expert views and predictions about commodities. Coal; oil; alumina; iron ore; gold; and diamonds.
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A glance through the latest expert views and predictions about commodities. China infrastructure; iron ore miners; Indian industry; coking coal; oil; and rutile.
Read MoreThe share prices of BHP, Rio Tinto, and Fortescue are back under pressure after global iron ore prices fell another 6% on Wednesday to their lowest level in six months.
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Iron ore prices have tumbled again, losing more than 4% on Wednesday and yet investors in Australia were sanguine and ignored the slide when a week ago they were selling off the shares of the big miners with alacrity.
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Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc has revealed a lower than expected June quarter profit thanks to the combination of weakness in insurance underwriting, a slowing economy and the fallout from Donald Trump’s trade wars.
Read MoreStandby for another round of selling in the big three iron ore companies in the wake of a slump in global prices after Donald Trump’s move to step up his trade war with China.
Read MoreCash returns to shareholders in the first half exceeded Morgan Stanley’s expectations and imply a total payout ratio of 70% and a base dividend pay-out of 50%. Operating earnings were slightly ahead of estimates.
Read MoreGlobal mining heavyweight Rio Tinto will shower shareholders with $US3.5 billion ($A5.01 billion) in cash after surge in first half earnings thanks to the higher iron ore price.
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Rio Tinto will boost its stake in its Energy Resources of Australia (ERA) to help the company fund the cleanup of the Ranger uranium mine in the Northern Territory.
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The global iron ore market could be short by around 30 million tonnes a year from 2020 and gradually improving by 2021-2022 as Vale, the big Brazilian miner, battles to recover from the January tailings dam disaster.
Read MoreRio Tinto also released its production update for the June quarter yesterday which confirmed the problems in its iron ore business in WA had cut output with a rise in costs per tonne.
Read MoreRio Tinto shares hardly moved yesterday despite the news of a major delay and cost blowout of up to 36% of the original $US5.3 billion estimate at its huge copper mine and underground project in Mongolia.
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Actual earnings this week will be few in Australia, but the big news reports will the June quarter, full year and half year production reports from the country’s major miners.
Read MoreThe broker has reviewed its assumptions and forecasts for Rio, including marking to new iron ore price forecasts. This leads to a valuation increase to an enterprise multiple of 5.5x for FY20, in line with global peers.
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The winner in 2018-19 and so far in 2019 is…iron ore…with a gain of 82% over 2018-19 and the biggest winner amongst the miners continues to be Fortescue Metal.
Read MoreOperational problems are the direct concern of management and following two fires and now this mining stuff up at Brockman Hub, some analysts are wondering if the real story is Rio pushing too hard in the Pilbara.
Read MoreMining problems at its huge operation in the Pilbara means Rio Tinto will not get the full benefit of the surge in iron ore prices which rose to yet another five year high Wednesday of $US114.08 a tonne.
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Rohan Walsh is the Portfolio Manager of the Ironbark Karara Australian Equities Fund. In this video he discusses BHP, RIO and commodity prices.
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Iron ore prices have topped $110 a tonne for 62% Fe ore delivered to Northern China as BHP, Fortescue and Rio ship as much product as possible to China to make up for the shortfall from Vale and to exploit the high prices.
Read MoreIron ore prices bounced more than 5% on Tuesday as Chinese steelmaker stocks eased again and Rio Tinto revealed it would not be selling as much of its key high-grade Pilbara fines blend and lump ore over the next two months.
Read MoreRio Tinto’s seemingly huge Winu copper, gold silver strike in the eastern Pilbara region of Western Australia is looking more interesting after the miner released more drill results to follow up on the first release of data in March.
Read MoreBrazil’s Vale is plagued by problems at its iron ore mines and, despite surging prices, other suppliers are finding it difficult to make up the difference. Yet are prices peaking?
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